Youshi automobile 2021-08-05 14:04:27 阅读数:795
A stock rises from 100 yuan to 1000 yuan or even 2000 yuan , How long does it take? ？ The answer of Guizhou Maotai is 6 year .2015 year 1 month , The share price of Moutai in Guizhou exceeded 100 yuan for the first time , And by the 2021 year , Maotai's share price reached its peak 2608.59 element , The total market capitalization of more than 2 One trillion .6 year 26 The double increase has been amazing , If there is an industry that can be born again in the future “ maotai ”, Even more than Maotai , That may be the new energy vehicle industry now in full swing .
The new energy track that has been running wildly for more than a year , There is still no sign of flameout .
8 month 4 Japan , BYD was chased by funds in the late trading , Close at the daily limit , The closing price is 308.09 element , The share price hit an all-time high , The market value has reached 8814.9 RMB 100 million , Become China's ninth largest listed company by market value , distance 10000 Billion market value is only one step away .
And before that , The power battery industry giant Ningde era, which is also the concept of new energy industry, only used 3 Year time , Share price from 25 Yuan soared to today's 569 element , Market value reached 13000 Billion , The growth rate has exceeded that of Moutai, Guizhou .
BYD and Ningde era , Which one will eventually become the “ maotai ”？
Technically speaking , BYD is a traditional manufacturing enterprise engaged in vehicle manufacturing , In the Ningde era of science and Technology Innovation Board , Focus on the R & D and manufacturing of automotive lithium batteries , It belongs to a link in the automobile supporting industry chain . Although both are in the competition of new energy , But they have different positioning , Capital markets will also have different expectations of them .
therefore , We say who will become “ maotai ”, It should not just be the absolute value of stock price and market value “ maotai ”, But in the logic of supporting the rise of its share price, it is also similar to “ maotai ” identical . The reason why Maotai stock price can go higher than people think , The logic lies in the high quality and scarcity of Maotai liquor . that , We might as well see if Ningde times and BYD have enough convincing logic in these aspects .
The barriers of Ningde era have become , BYD has no absolute advantage in the vehicle industry
When talking about quality in the manufacturing industry, we should integrate brands 、 Product quality 、 Technical level 、 In terms of market share . Ningde times is now in the leading position in the lithium battery industry , According to the data of China Automotive Research Institute ,2020 Annual total installed capacity of power batteries in China 63.6GWh, Among them, the installed capacity of Ningde era 31.9GWh, Market share 50%.2020 The annual operating income of Ningde era 503 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 9.90%; Net profit attributable to the parent after deduction 42.6 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 8.93%.
and 2021 The results for the first quarter of 2007 show that , Ningde times achieved operating revenue in the first quarter 191.67 One hundred million yuan , That's up from the same period last year 112.24%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company reaches 19.54 One hundred million yuan , a 2020 Year on year growth in the first quarter of 163.38%.
Customers including giants such as Tesla have to rush for orders in advance . And there is an electric vehicle head enterprise such as Tesla endorsing it , The product brand effect of Ningde era has also been guaranteed .
The technical barrier threshold of lithium battery industry is high , Long term technology accumulation requires a long cycle from breakthrough to mature application , The Ningde era can be said to have the core barrier advantage in the production of lithium battery products for electric vehicles , This is also the key to establish brand barriers in Ningde era . Recently, the sodium ion battery released by Ningde times , It's more than one position ahead of its competitors .
BYD, as a vehicle manufacturing enterprise ,2021 In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles was 15.46 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 155%, Ranked third in the world . Such market performance can be called excellent , And it can be expected that BYD's sales will continue to rise in the future , But this volume is still not enough to support its excessively high share price and valuation .
Moreover, there are many competitors in the field of new energy vehicle manufacturing , Both from the global head of pure electric vehicle giant Tesla , And the public 、 Toyota and many other old car factories , There are also domestic independent brands and cross-border new forces of car making . In this competitive landscape , BYD is currently in addition to running on the new energy track , Sales can still be in the forefront , No matter from the brand power 、 Product strength 、 Technical force or marketing force , No one has an absolute advantage .
In addition to vehicle manufacturing, BYD , It also has deep technical reserves in battery R & D and manufacturing . But at present, BYD's main blade battery is still lithium iron phosphate battery in essence , Its biggest highlight is mainly reflected in security . Not in the core material of the battery 、 Make a breakthrough in terms of maximum capacity . Other domestic vehicle enterprises also have their own battery pack solutions , For example, graphene battery 、 Magazine, battery, etc , Therefore, it does not constitute a technical barrier .
Different from the supply-demand relationship of the whole vehicle , The supply-demand relationship of batteries is scarce
The world's cars have suffered “ Battery shortage ” And the expanding market demand for new energy vehicles , Ningde times is an upstream enterprise in the automobile industry chain , It can be said that it has strangled the lifeblood of vehicle manufacturing enterprises .
This time is different from the past , In the era of traditional fuel vehicles , Vehicle enterprises have the right to speak , The supporting industrial chain enterprises just obey the needs of vehicle enterprises . In the era of new energy vehicles , The vehicle enterprise is more like a solution integrator ,“ Three electric ” The most core batteries in the are from battery manufacturers .
The shortage of battery raw materials , It also leads to the scarcity of high-performance batteries . Many vehicle enterprises have replaced their models from ternary lithium battery to lithium iron phosphate battery, which is why . All this means that the upstream leading enterprises like Ningde era have more voice and bargaining power , We can even actively control the supply-demand relationship between upstream and downstream . From the boss of car enterprises, they need to go to Ningde times to ask for orders , We can see how scarce the batteries in Ningde era are .
BYD, as a vehicle manufacturing enterprise , Its profits mainly come from C End market sales . And the whole vehicle C There is no scarcity of products in the end market , Except for the market price increase of a few models , Most models don't have the ability to control the market . The pursuit of vehicle enterprises for sales , It will only make them continuously meet the needs of the market , This is basically a relationship of oversupply . From this point of view , BYD will face greater pressure in the future .
The new energy industry is improving as a whole ,“ maotai ” More than one , It's just a matter of time
In the context of policies promoting the overall improvement of the new energy industry , In the future, new energy will be produced in the new energy industry “ maotai ”, Maybe more than one . Ningde era and BYD , In different areas , Have the strength and opportunity to be the next “ maotai ”, It's just a matter of time .
In the Ningde era when the technology innovation board was listed , Although it is a battery manufacturing enterprise , But technology is very strong . So although the share price soared all the way , But the price earnings ratio is only 169 times , In terms of technology enterprises , Such a P / E ratio is not exaggerated . In addition, the current stable income and profits of Ningde era , And certain barriers have been built in the industrial chain , Its future development trend and profit expectation will be clearer .
The market positioning of BYD is still biased towards a traditional vehicle manufacturing enterprise . And vehicle manufacturing enterprises such as Volkswagen 、 The stock price and market value of these old big manufacturers of Toyota are the subject matter for reference . At present, BYD's market value has exceeded that of Volkswagen , But it is far less than Volkswagen in global sales . And BYD's P / E ratio has been as high as 928 times , This is already the top ten enterprises with the highest P / E ratio in domestic market value , It also far exceeds the P / E ratio of traditional vehicle manufacturing enterprises . therefore , BYD wants to be the next “ maotai ”, More time is needed to prove their skills and ability to make money .（ writing / ATV The old gun ）
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