Forecast: the new energy market will continue to grow steadily from August to October

Car home 2021-08-05 14:13:06 阅读数:132

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forecast new energy market continue

[ Car home ] 2021 In the first half of , China's production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceed 120 Thousands of cars , The percentage of production and sales of new energy vehicles in the overall automobile production and sales reached 9.7% and 9.4%.

6 month , The sales volume of new energy vehicles is 25.6 Thousands of cars . among , Sales of pure electric vehicles 21.2 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 150%, Plug-in hybrid sales 4.4 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 110%. In the sales structure of pure electric passenger car market , miniature 、SUV、 The proportion of compact stage is about 33%、20%、18%; The top three models of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are SUV、 Compact class 、 The proportion of medium and large-sized enterprises is about 27%、24%、20%.

『 Agatsuma MINIEV』

6 month , Agatsuma MINIEV、 tesla Model 3、Model Y、 The qin dynasty PLUS DM-i And other models are leading in sales , Respectively 3.01 Thousands of cars 、2.53 Thousands of cars 、1.16 Thousands of cars 、0.93 Thousands of cars , The total market share is about 29.8%. In the new force of car building , Wei to 、 Xiao peng 、 The ideals are 8083 car 、6565 car 、7713 car , Each realized 116.1%、617%、320.6% Year-on-year growth .


『 The performance of pure electric passenger vehicles by level 』


The performance of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in different levels

6 month , The consensus index of new energy vehicle industry is 105 spot , It's down from last month 2 A little bit , Up from the same period last year 5 A little bit , It means that the new energy vehicle market continues to be hot .

According to the prediction of the leading index ,2021 year 8 month -10 In June, the new energy vehicle market was in a steady growth state . From the perspective of consumer groups of new energy vehicles , Individual users are the main user group for the growth of new energy vehicle market , Different types of market segments , The proportion of individual users has increased to a certain extent . From the perspective of consumption structure, the consumption of new energy vehicles shows a trend of polarization , Individual users of pure electric vehicles are concentrated in minicars and medium-sized and above models ; Individual users of plug-in hybrid and extended range models are mainly concentrated in medium and medium-sized and large models .

6 As a traditional off-season , The shortage of automotive chips continues , There is a relapse 、 The impact of rainy season and flood on vehicle production 、 Sales have a certain impact . For new energy vehicle enterprises , Some car companies arrange high-temperature holidays , Chip supply is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter , Manufacturers will speed up the pace of production . For dealers , We should reasonably estimate the actual market demand , And actively do a good job in epidemic prevention and control . Lag index 2021 year 6 The month continued to pick up , It's warmer than 115 spot , Continue to verify that the early recovery forecast of new energy vehicle market is in line with the reality .


『 Consensus index and benchmark index of new energy vehicle industry 』


『 The new energy vehicle industry is consistent 、 Go ahead 、 Lag index 』

2021 In the first half of, China's economy continued to recover , For car purchase and consumption , The future will build “ National level guidance 、 Led by local government ” Automobile consumption policy system . The policy trend will shift to national level policy guidance 、 Local government combined with local transportation 、 Industrial characteristics and financial capacity , Formulate local automobile consumption policy ,“ One strategy for one place 、 Accurate ShiCe ” It will be the basic development direction of automobile consumption policy in the future . In the passenger car market , since this year on , Although the market share of new energy passenger vehicles in first tier cities decreased year-on-year , The rise of new energy vehicles in third tier and below cities is very obvious , But in absolute terms, Shanghai 、 Beijing is the first and second tier cities with purchase restrictions , The consumption of new energy vehicles is still the main body , There is huge market development space in the third tier and below cities .

In the commercial vehicle market ,2021 The scrapping and renewal of diesel trucks in the third year of China came to an end , The key areas of some provinces and cities began to control the four countries , In the future, the right of way of Guosi trucks will be further restricted , It will also accelerate the pace of electrification of commercial vehicles ; In the field of intelligent Internet connected vehicles , The intelligent networked vehicle standard has entered an intensive formulation and release period . be based on L2 The penetration rate of level automatic driving is gradually increasing , Many enterprises began to upgrade L2+ function , Enhance product differentiation and competitiveness , meanwhile , The independent industrial chain of intelligent networking is also rising .

2021 In the first half of , Affected by chip shortage , The production rhythm of automobile enterprises has been disrupted , Auto manufacturers' inventories continue to decline , Inventory has fallen to a low level . The chip shortage crisis has lasted for more than half a year , The shortage of auto chips will reach its peak in the second quarter , With MCU The main vehicle chip capacity is from 2021 It eased in the third quarter of 2013 , It is expected that by the fourth quarter, vehicle enterprises will gradually perceive the recovery of chip supply .

meanwhile , The cost of raw materials for lithium batteries is rising , The reason for the rise in prices : First, the demand is rising , There is a strong demand for raw materials for power batteries of downstream new energy vehicles , Stimulate prices ; Second, the supply is short and the supply is insufficient , The international epidemic advantage is still severe , Australia, the main lithium ore exporter 、 intelligence 、 Lithium production plans in Argentina and other countries are slowing down . Due to the imbalance between supply and demand , The price of lithium battery materials is likely to continue to rise in the future , In the future, the shuffle of power battery industry will be further intensified .

2021 In the first half of , The overall operation of the national economy is stable , The automobile market is generally stable . Looking forward to the future , China's economic operation will maintain a stable recovery , Lay a solid foundation for automobile consumption . However, there is still great uncertainty in global epidemic prevention and control , Especially chip supply 、 The price of raw materials has gone up 、 The pressure of market competition will have an unstable impact on the development of new energy vehicles .( writing / One hundred people of electric cars in China will Xiong Ying )

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