[ Car home industry ] “ Battery shortage ？ At present, it has not reached full production , Why is the supply tight ？” Ask about battery supply , People in the power battery industry are a little surprised . But on the other side ,“ Battery shortage ” Fiercer than “ Core shortage ” There are many arguments ： The goods were urged in Ningde era , Rumors abound that he Xiaopeng is squatting on the battery .
that , Power battery “ Waste ” Is it true or false? ？ Who is the “ Battery shortage ” Behind the scenes ？ How to solve the problem of battery supply in the future ？ Car house found through consultation , So-called “ Battery shortage ” The main performance is the lack of high-end production capacity , Low end overcapacity .“ Battery shortage ”, Just at the moment when the new energy vehicle market is booming , The local imbalance between supply and demand .
Controversial “ Battery shortage ”
“ We have not tracked the problem of battery shortage at present .” Wang Min, an analyst in the power battery industry, is interested in “ Battery shortage ” This statement is very unacceptable . He thinks that , The power battery capacity has been in the excess stage , The view of battery shortage is untenable .“ No other company has higher capacity utilization than Ningde era , And Ningde times still shows inventory , Why the shortage of batteries ？”
Wang Min takes Ningde era as an example to calculate ,“ It is conservatively estimated that the effective capacity of Ningde era is at least 100GWh, This year, 1-6 month , Installed capacity in Ningde era 24GWh. Last year's annual report showed that , The inventory of Ningde times is about 14GWh.” From these data , There will be no shortage of battery supply in Ningde era .
Ningde era 2020 The annual report in confirms Wang Min's view . The report points out that ,2020 The annual output of power battery in Ningde era was 51.71GWh, The capacity utilization rate is 74.83%. Again ,2020 Installed capacity in Ningde era 31.9GWh. According to the data of battery output and installed capacity in Ningde era , The power battery is in a state of oversupply .
Besides , According to the data released by China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance ,1-6 The cumulative output of power batteries in China was 74.7GWh, The cumulative installed capacity is 52.5GWh. It means , There are still... In the first half of the year 22.2GWh The product has not been installed yet , Close to the total output 30%.“ The data of total battery production and installed capacity are so different , How to prove the shortage of batteries .” Wang Min said .
“ Battery shortage is essentially the imbalance of supply relationship , On the whole, the power battery capacity is in a state of oversupply , However, in terms of subdivided areas, there is a shortage of supply and demand .” Roland Berger senior partner and vice president of Greater China Zheng �S Think , Power batteries are in short supply , It mainly focuses on the insufficient supply of high-end capacity .
“ such as , We see that Ningde times mainly bet on the technical route of ternary lithium , BYD and GuoXuan high tech mainly adopt the technical route of lithium iron phosphate . that , Behind these different technical routes , We found that high-quality power battery suppliers are one of the few .” zheng �S emphasize , When most of the battery supply is concentrated in the enterprises represented by Ningde era , With the explosive growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles , There is a local imbalance between supply and demand ,“ Battery shortage ” It's also seen in the newspapers .
The car house found that , Power batteries are in short supply , In fact, the supply of high-end capacity is insufficient , And the state of low-end overcapacity .“ From the total data , Battery capacity is still in surplus . But power battery supply has its own law , Each production line corresponds to different OEMs and models , It's not easy to change , It takes time to adjust .” Li Liang, an analyst in the automotive battery industry, told Automotive home .
Many people in the industry told Auto Home , Among the current power battery suppliers , Except for the Ningde era 、 BYD 、 GuoXuan high tech 、 Hive energy 、 AVIC lithium battery, etc TOP10 Beyond the reliability of the enterprise , The battery quality of other enterprises is really hard to compliment , It also led to many spontaneous combustion Events . Besides , The new energy vehicle market is developing towards high-end , We need more high-quality power battery capacity , Not so much a shortage of batteries , It's more like a shortage of high-end battery capacity .
Actually ,“ Battery shortage ” Not to the point of sensationalism , The impact on the main engine plant is not very obvious . Auto home visits Xiaopeng auto Beijing experience store , Salesperson Wang Nan said , From the sales side , I don't feel “ Battery shortage ”, Users can also place orders normally , Delivery is also within the normal time frame .“ Xiao peng P7 It has been on the market for a long time , Now you can pick up the car soon when you place an order .”
Who is the “ Battery shortage ” Behind the scenes ？
“ Battery shortage ” The origin of , It is inseparable from the vigorous development of China's new energy vehicle market .
According to the China Automobile Industry Association , This year, 1-6 month , Sales of new energy vehicles 120.6 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 201.5%. in other words , The installed capacity of power batteries has also doubled . At present , The sales of new energy vehicles in China grew rapidly , As a result, it is difficult for the supply chain to meet the demand in a short time . Under the explosive growth of the market , The power battery supply can't keep up with the pace , It's also normal .
zheng �S Also think , Annual sales of new energy vehicles in China 2018-2020 Reached for three consecutive years 100 More than ten thousand ,2021 The year may exceed 200 Thousands of cars . Based on this situation , When the power battery supplier's capacity is limited ,2021-2023 The power battery supply will be in a state of shortage in .
Based on Prediction ,2025 year , New energy vehicles account for at least 20%, Overall , By then, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 500 Thousands of cars .“ It is even predicted that this goal will be completed a year ahead of schedule , from 100 The annual sales volume of 10000 vehicles quickly climbed to 500 Thousands of cars , The demand for power batteries will also increase rapidly .” zheng �S Express , It is against this background ,“ Battery shortage ” Stir fry .
“ Battery shortage ” It is also closely related to the fluctuation of upstream raw materials . Li Liang stressed , There is a shortage of raw materials upstream of power battery , Rise in price , It also restricts the supply of power batteries to a certain extent .“ There is a shortage of raw materials , Rise in price , It is a common phenomenon in the industry .”
Take the cathode material as an example , There is data showing ,2021 Since then , The price of lithium carbonate is higher than 2020 It almost doubled in the same period last year , The price of raw materials such as lithium iron phosphate increased by nearly half , The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased the most, even to 147.8%. It is reported that , Affected by the shortage of lithium resources , Recently, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate has risen again , Has been gradually upgraded to 9 Ten thousand yuan / Tons or more .
Merco, founder of true lithium research, believes that , In this round of rising prices of battery raw materials , Large battery companies hoard a lot of key raw materials . such , Squeeze down on profit margins , In order to improve the bargaining power of batteries , Battery suppliers also have some “ Not very happy ”, This exacerbates to some extent “ Battery shortage ”.
“ Battery shortage ” When will it be relieved ？
“ In the long term , The shortage of power battery supply will certainly be solved .” zheng �S Express , In the future, the power battery initiative will not be concentrated in the hands of these suppliers , As battery companies continue to expand production capacity , And power exchange mode , Power batteries will form a trend of oversupply .
however , solve “ Battery shortage ” The problem is not solved overnight . zheng �S Think ,“ Battery shortage ” Compared with “ Core shortage ”, The solution cycle will be longer .“ The most important thing in chip shortage is to solve the supply problem , The shortage of power batteries is not only related to supply , Also consider the time and difficulty of adjusting the supply , Some OEMs want the battery of Ningde era , If you change another supplier , The cycle will be longer .”
Of course ,“ Battery shortage ” It will never last . According to Li Liang ,“ In the future, the power battery market will be shuffled , Only 5-10 Core suppliers , Their capacity scale 、 Enterprise volume 、 Financial strength 、 R & D capabilities are comparable , In the procurement process, the main engine factory , Nor will it focus only on one supplier , such ‘ Battery shortage ’ It is expected to be solved .”
Now? , We can understand “ Battery shortage ” The reasons behind it , High end capacity is always scarce , In order to ensure its own supply , Will take various forms to compete for the battery . such as , Some OEMs adopt strategic binding relationship , Ensure the supply of their own batteries .6 At the beginning of , Great Wall Motors signed a ten-year strategic cooperation framework agreement on power battery with Ningde times .6 End of month , Tesla also signed a new supply agreement with Ningde times , The agreement expires from 2022 The year is extended to 2025 year .
actually , future 2-3 year , Power battery manufacturers have started another round of large-scale investment and production expansion . data display , First half of this year , The main investment projects in the power battery industry have reached 57 pen , The amount of investment exceeds 3500 One hundred million yuan .“ Battery shortage ”, It will not hurt the muscles and bones of the new energy vehicle industry , Don't panic too much .（ writing / Car home Li Zhengguang ）
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