Netease automotive industry 2021-08-06 09:12:47 阅读数:722
Latest data , Although the U.S. 7 The month on month decline in absolute car sales was smaller , However, the inventory of American car dealers continues to hit a new low , Considering the strong demand for cars , The supply side faces a shortage of chips 、 Shipping and other factors , Goldman Sachs believes that , The pricing power of the U.S. auto industry will be further strengthened in the future .
The latest data from the US Bureau of economic analysis show that ,7 month , American automobile 、 Trucks and SUV Our total sales fell less than 1%（0.7 Thousands of cars ）, It fell for the third consecutive month , to 128.8 Thousands of cars （6 Month for 129.5 Thousands of cars ）.
If according to industry standards —— Seasonally adjusted annual sales volume (SAAR) Look at , The United States 7 Monthly car sales are relatively high 2019 In the same period of the year 13.4%, to 1475 ten thousand SAAR. This is the 2012 year 10 Since getting rid of the financial crisis and the great recession in June ( Except for last year's blockade ) The lowest level .
But overall ,7 In June, the absolute sales volume of U.S. cars fell slightly month on month （0.7 Thousands of cars ）, However, the inventory decreased significantly month on month 30 Thousands of cars , Continue to fall from an all-time low .
data display , U.S. auto dealer inventories continue to rise from 6 Of the month 130 Ten thousand cars fell to 100 Thousands of pieces of , The inventory in the same period last year was 250 Thousands of cars . It means 7 The net supply entering the auto market in June was low (6 Car inventories fell by about 10 Thousands of cars ).
Besides , The data also means the average number of days of inventory turnover in the U.S. auto industry （DOI） It's a record 22 God , and 2021 year 6 Month for 25 God ,2020 year 7 Month for 53 God .
The imbalance between supply and demand will continue The automobile industry has strong pricing power
The shortage of semiconductors has led to a large number of closures of automobile assembly plants around the world , Add stimulation to the normal push , This year in the United States 3 month 、4 The month and 5 Strong new car sales in January , All these have led to the historical depletion of auto dealer inventory .
In addition to the shortage of semiconductors , Other shipping and other factors , It will take a long time for the inventory of American car dealers to return to normal levels .
Looking forward to the future , Goldman Sachs estimates , Automobile production problems “ It will continue to exist in the short term , The main reason is the chip limitation ( But it also includes shipping challenges , And the surge of new coronal infections in some areas ), May continue to drag down （ automobile ） Industry sales .”
The good news is , This trend will eventually reverse , According to the comments of various automobile companies , The carmaker expects , With the semiconductor industry at the end of last year 、 At the beginning of this year, measures were taken to increase production capacity , It is expected that more chips will be supplied in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of this year , But on average it still takes about 9 It took months to put semiconductor capacity online , Therefore, the supply and demand of chips will remain prohibited throughout the year .
Due to the low inventory of the U.S. auto industry , And a continued strong demand environment , Goldman Sachs expects the pricing power of the U.S. auto industry to remain strong in the third quarter .
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