What do you rely on to support the valuation of ideal cars when they go back to Hong Kong for listing?

Bullet Finance 2021-08-08 22:01:21 阅读数:86

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rely support valuation ideal cars
After returning to the battlefield of Hong Kong stocks , Can ideal break out of the dilemma of development ?

author | Walker

edit | The egg always

Produce | Bullet economy

Making cars with new energy is one of the most expensive tracks , Who doesn't want more money ?

8 month 6 Sunday night , Ideal automobile announced in the Hong Kong stock exchange that , Hong Kong IPO The issue price is set at 118 The Hong Kong dollar / stocks , The offer price is equivalent to about... Per American depositary share 30.36 dollar .

According to the announcement , Total proceeds from the global sale of ideal cars ( Excluding underwriting Commission and selling expenses ) Estimated to be about 118 Million Hong Kong dollars ( Assuming that the over allotment right is not exercised ).

Besides , The company has granted over allotment rights to International Underwriters , It can be issued at the international offer price up to a total of 1500 Thousands of stocks A Class A Common Stock , expect 2021 year 8 month 12 It began to be listed and traded on the main board of the exchange , The stock code is 2015.

since 2020 year 7 Since landing on the NASDAQ in June , Less than a year , Ideal automobile has launched the Hong Kong stock listing plan again , Following the dual listing of Xiaopeng automobile , It will soon become the second new power of double listing .

But the cruel reality in front of the ideal car is —— The company is still in a state of continuous loss , Betting on a single model makes the anti risk ability of the ideal car weak , The pressure on the sales side is not small , The main model of external competitor Tesla Model Y After localization, the price will be greatly reduced again , In the face of domestic and foreign troubles , Whether the ideal car can break through smoothly ?

in fact , Dual listing is ideal , In addition to getting more money , There are also more challenges —— The ideal car will usher in higher cost expenditure and more stringent system problems , Because according to the regulations of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange , The second listing of an enterprise shall provide two years of complete accounting compliance records .

The ideal of standing at the tuyere of new energy vehicles , Can it continue to be favored by capital ?

1、 There is no escape from the mire of loss

The founder of the ideal car 、CEO Li Xiang once said this to the outside world , Ideal doesn't mind any way of financing , Including the secondary market 、 Bank loans and bond issuance ,“ Of course, more money is better .” This also reflects the ideal desire for capital .

Making new energy vehicles is a recognized money burning project , It is not only a test of whether the enterprise can achieve “ Self circulation ”, At the same time, it also tests whether enterprises can obtain continuous capital injection , After all, R & D 、 marketing 、 The future layout is all “ Gold swallowing black hole ”, And a problem in one link will lead to the burning of money “ Hit the water float ”, This is also the reason why the new forces of car making represented by ideal are eager to go to Hong Kong for dual listing .

chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement

Baiteng is the most typical negative teaching material , At its peak, it invested 110 Billion yuan for making cars , In nanjing 1200 A super factory has been built on mu of land , At one time, byteng's valuation exceeded 40 Billion dollars , But in “ Burn up ” After the amount of financing in hand, we still haven't built a mass production car , Recently about “ Baiteng automobile was filed for bankruptcy reorganization ” The news has pushed the enterprise to the cusp of public opinion .

Although the ideal car is not in “ The autumn of crisis ”, But as can be seen from the prospectus , The life of the ideal car is not ideal .

The prospectus shows ,2018 Year to 2021 year Q1, Ideal total net loss 44.83 One hundred million yuan .2020 year , The ideal car has finally turned losses into positive on the gross profit index , The performance of net profit attributable to the parent company has not been ideal ,2020 The net loss narrowed in 2010 is a flash in the pan , Latest data 2021 year Q1 Our losses have widened to 3.6 One hundred million yuan , It was a loss in the same period last year 4.7 times .

The ideal points out , The loss is mainly due to investment in R & D and automatic driving scheme , In addition, it is also dragged down by self built factories and a sharp increase in marketing expenditure .

The prospectus shows ,2018 Year to 2021 year Q1, Ideal cars invest heavily in R & D , The total expenditure amounted to 35.77 One hundred million yuan , But such a huge R & D cost does not match the current product line of the ideal car , At present, there are only ideal models of ideal cars on sale ONE a .

however , Ideal car is expected to continue to increase its loss this year , Because according to the ideal plan , We will continue to invest in new models and automatic driving solutions this year , Another production line 、 The sales and service network will also be expanded , All this needs money .

It is worth noting that , The gross profit margin and net profit margin of sales reflecting the realization space , Although there is a certain increase , Performance is not stable . According to the prospectus , The gross profit margin on sales was once from 2020 year Q1 Of 8.0% Double to 2020 year Q3 Of 19.8%, The net profit margin on sales shows 2021 year Q1 Step up from the previous step “ Back before liberation ”—— from 2.6% Retrogression is a loss 10.1%.

before , Some media say that the ideal car depends on “ Pick the door ” Cost savings , Raise the gross margin , For example, ideal car offline stores , The storefront is not big , Simple decoration . As for the changes in gross profit margin , The reason is that there is only one ideal model and the main push program electric vehicle , This model is a “ Double-edged sword ”, It can bring cash flow and gross profit to the company as soon as it is listed , But at the same time, a model brings great risks , Any uncertain factors will lead to a crisis in the capital chain .

at present , The ideal car's operating cash flow is not optimistic , end 2020 year 12 month 31 Japan , The company's operating cash flow is 31 RMB 100 million , Especially in the context of continuous losses , Increased pressure on Financing . However, the increase in total current assets of ideal vehicles is increasing 2021 There was a downward trend in , from 52.5% Down to 3.0%, This bodes well for the ideal .

The prospectus shows , end 2021 year 7 month 20 Japan , The ideal car cash reserve is 303.6 One hundred million yuan , He Weilai 、 Xiao Peng's cash reserves 475 Million dollars 362 Compared with 100 million yuan, it is the least , In the future, we will develop new business and R & D investment , The ideal will be limited .

in addition , The marketing cost of an ideal car cannot be ignored . According to the prospectus , The ideal is 2021 Invest in marketing expenses in the first quarter of 2013 5.1 One hundred million yuan , Year-on-year growth 277.7%, Although this and Wei Lai's 12.0 One hundred million yuan 、 Xiao peng's 26.2 Not much compared to 100 million yuan , But the investment in occupying the market , Ideals cannot go back , This also means that this expenditure will continue to grow in the future .

2、 ideal “ ambition ”

To some extent , An ideal outline of the future , More like the present “ Make up a missed lesson ”.

In the prospectus , The ideal car outlines a grand goal for the future : One is in 2022 Launched a new “X” platform , On this basis, we developed a full-size luxury plus program electric car SUV, Second, in 2023 Two high voltage pure electric vehicles were launched in , And at least two new pure electric vehicles are launched every year .

Ideal is eager to launch new products , Because the previous ideal has lived for three years by relying on the only car model in sales . Although ideal ONE Sales are good , It has become a new energy source for several consecutive months SUV No. 1 in sales , However, as one of the few incremental electric vehicles on the market , Ideal ONE Has been controversial .

chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement

Need to know , The current new forces of car making have completed the layout of multiple product lines , For example, Weilai 、 Xiao Peng and Weima , Each new car product line will soon be put into production or on the market , But the ideal gradually falls behind . by comparison , The ideal car has a small volume , Product matrix not formed , The disadvantages such as slow channel expansion appear .

The present , The ideal demand for R & D and production of new cars may be more urgent , In terms of funds, it is also more nervous , Therefore, it is necessary to raise more funds by listing in Hong Kong .

Another thing to note , Ideal car is the type of car currently on sale ONE It belongs to the incremental program , and 2022 The new models expected to come on the market in are still new models . In principle, the fuel engine is added on the basis of electric vehicle , You can use fuel power to maintain click operation when the power is low , This type of vehicle is facing policy risks .

Because adding fuel to the engine will make the vehicle no longer environmentally friendly , Therefore, many places across the country have begun to tighten the identification of their new energy vehicles , To put it bluntly , It is such hybrid vehicles that are no longer encouraged by policy .

Actually 2019 The wind direction has changed since , This can be seen from the government subsidies ——2019 Year to 2020 year , Plug in hybrid ( Including adding program ) The amount of subsidy is from 1 Ten thousand yuan / The platform drops straight to 0.85 Ten thousand yuan / platform , The degree of decline is up to 15%.

2020 end of the year , The four ministries jointly issued 《 Notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles 》, Plug in hybrid passenger car ( Including adding program ) The subsidy range was further reduced , by 0.68 Ten thousand yuan / platform , Decrease to 20%.

Not only are subsidies declining , Policy inclusiveness is also declining . The latest regulations of Beijing Municipality show that , Potential buyers of additional electric vehicles must participate in the lottery to obtain the license ;2021 Beginning of the year , Shanghai announced that it would start from 2023 year 1 The green card for electric vehicles will not be added since June .

therefore , A single model brings revenue uncertainty , And the risk of policy tightening , All make it ideal to complete the R & D and laying of multiple product lines in the shortest time .

Ideally, there is already a response plan in the prospectus . According to the prospectus , Ideally, China has become the world's largest new energy vehicle market , This is a good time to introduce high-voltage pure electric platform and high-voltage pure electric vehicle . By 2021 year 3 month 31 Japan , Ideal has invested in research and development 1633 Employees .

R & D and the laying of new production lines will require huge capital investment , This makes the ideal unable to see the hope of profit in the short term . about 2021 year Q1 Loss of , Ideally, this should be attributed to the increase in R & D and marketing expenses , Due in 2021 In the year , The ideal loss will continue to increase .

3、 Ideal “ The second growth curve ” Do you ?

Whether the new forces of car making can open up revenue business other than selling cars ? It's not impossible , But it's hard .

As can be seen from Tesla's financial report , In addition to selling cars, there are more and more revenue businesses ( In addition to frying bitcoin and selling carbon credits ), Its service revenue has accounted for... Of the total revenue 8.25%. Some analysts pointed out that , Tesla's model is —— Let cars make as much profit as possible to increase market sales , After the market is rolled out, increase profit growth through software payment and subscription to automatic driving services .

Similarly, , Ideal car is also actively exploring businesses other than selling cars . Results show that ,2021 The first quarter of , Ideal cars have increased in service revenue 1 One hundred million yuan .

Ideal car prospectus also has relevant statements , At present, ideal has developed a self-developed automatic driving data platform ( The future model may appear in the form of subscription services like Tesla ), The autopilot data platform collects user driving data , And upload it to the cloud database , The data will be reviewed and analyzed by artificial intelligence algorithm and data mining technology , To optimize the autopilot experience .

chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement

However , If you carefully analyze this business of the ideal car , Maybe not so reliable .

The hardware and software of the ideal autopilot system mainly comes from abroad , For example, the system is based on Google's Android system , The intelligent cockpit is supplied by Chuangda and Desai Xiwei , Subject to the complexity of international relations , The supply of software and parts has no small risk . in addition , The R & D team of the ideal car is also weak , The R & D team of Xiaopeng automobile has reached 6000 people ( Expand to... At the end of the year 1 ten thousand people ), The ideal R & D personnel are 1633 people .

It is worth mentioning that , In China, regulators are also tightening the collection of user data , Tesla has also been repeatedly questioned for infringing on user privacy because of collecting user data , Driving data collected by ideal car “ How to use it without breaking the rules ” It is an issue that needs to be measured .

Besides , If enterprises can reduce costs , Whether it also opens up the second growth curve in disguise ?

Tesla just announced in the second quarter of this year that the revenue from selling cars has increased significantly , One of them is after opening a factory in Shanghai , The credit for greatly reducing production costs .

7 month 27 Japan , Tesla announces ,2021 Revenue in the second quarter of the fiscal year reached 119.6 Billion dollars , Year-on-year growth 98%, Net income of 11.78 Billion dollars , Net profit for the same period last year was 1.29 Billion dollars ; The net profit attributable to common shareholders is 11.42 Billion dollars , Growth over the same period 998%. Behind this is the fact that after the Shanghai factory was put into operation , The proportion of local procurement increased to 40%, Greatly reduce the production cost .

Corresponding to it is , Tesla's main models have repeatedly reduced prices , Especially medium-sized SUV Model Y Lower the price first 14 Ten thousand yuan , Again 7.19 Ten thousand yuan . This is ideal for enterprises selling the same category of models , It's not good news .

The biggest difference between the ideal car and other new forces of home-made cars is , Xiao peng 、 Weilai mostly adopts OEM mode , The ideal is to build your own factory . Self built factories will invest more in the early stage , But with the completion of the pipeline and the increase of production , The cost will be greatly diluted , And it is more flexible than OEM in collaborative scheduling . Refer to Tesla's local self built factory , Ideally, there should be a greater cost advantage here .

But is it true ? Results show that , The current selling cost of the ideal car , That is, the proportion between product cost and product sales revenue is too high , Not quite like the cost advantage brought by self built factories . Formed by self built factories “ Valuing assets ”, It is impossible to reduce costs in the short term , This is also one of the reasons why people doubt their ideals .

4、 The trouble of ideal growth

The ideal car not only has financial anxiety , There are also some troubles in word-of-mouth .

2020 Ideal year ONE Of “ Shaft break event ”, The ideal car has been pushed to the cusp of public opinion . According to the 《 Economic Observer 》 reports , end 2020 year 10 month 31 Japan , Ideal ONE A total of... Front suspension collision accidents have occurred 97 rise , Among them is 10 The ball joint of the lower arm of the front suspension came out of the ball pin .

And then , Ideal car chairman and CEO Li Xiang admitted to the media that the product has design defects , But the refusal to recall only “ upgrade ” Solution , Under the great pressure of public opinion from the media and consumers , Ideal automobile finally filed with the State Administration of market supervision , Choose to 10469 Recall of faulty cars .

and 2021 year 7 month , From the ideal owner's “ Mercury door ” Evolved into “ Rusty door ”, It also directly exposed the quality problems of the ideal car . therefore , In addition to developing new technologies 、 Outside the new model , It is also urgent to improve the existing technology and vehicle manufacturing process .

On the track of new energy vehicles , The competition is getting fiercer , A leader like ideal cannot be content with the status quo , We should continue to expand our advantages , Keep a distance from the latecomers .

overall , Ideal car is in the first echelon of the new forces of car making , In technology and supply chain 、 Distribution channel 、 Preliminary accumulation and leadership in brand building have been completed , But new product development and after-sales 、 service 、 Market Research and even marketing business need to be further polished , This goes back to the initial question —— To be straitened for money .

Returning to Hong Kong for listing can solve part of the problem , But what is more noteworthy is whether the funds are replenished from two aspects , In the short term, we need to look at the ideal ONE The sales of , In the long run, it depends on whether there is new financing and the launch of new pure electric models , If the pure electric vehicle business of the ideal vehicle is on track , To really support a higher valuation , Otherwise, going back to Hong Kong for listing will not open the dilemma .

But the problem is ,2023 The ideal of officially launching a pure electric car in , Will there be good development opportunities then ?

* The picture is from : Photo net , be based on VRF agreement .

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