Bullet Finance 2021-08-08 22:13:30 阅读数:178
A big test has come , Agencies are answering questions .
author | Huang Yanhua
edit | The egg always
Produce | Bullet economy
It's popular 5 Months “ Double subtraction ” The policy is finally implemented .
In recent days, , General Office of the CPC Central Committee 、 Issued by the general office of the state council 《 Opinions on further reducing students' homework burden and off campus training burden in the stage of compulsory education 》（ Hereinafter referred to as “ Double subtraction ” policy ）.
As soon as this policy comes out , Quickly burst into a circle of friends , Caused widespread discussion . Not only K12 Parents' worries are filled with ,A stocks 、 Hong Kong 、 The three major capital markets of US stocks are also performing “ Drop and fall ” A tragic scene ; The next few days , In the future 、 Head education companies represented by Gao Tu and others have also opened “ downsized ” action .
「 Bullet economy 」 be aware ,“ Not for profit , No financing , And don't let it go on the market , No advertising yet ” It has become the topic most discussed by people inside and outside the industry , The education and training industry needs to answer “ How to transform and survive ” This important proposition .
“ Double subtraction ” After the introduction of the policy , What will you give K12 What are the major impacts of educational and training institutions ？ In the face of the fierce “ Double subtraction ” policy ,K12 How will education and training institutions deal with ？ Which transformation path is more reliable ？
Judging from the present situation ,“ Double subtraction ” The impact of the policy is huge and multifaceted .
The most direct impact is reflected in parents . According to the 「 Bullet economy 」 understand ,“ Double subtraction ” After the policy is released ,K12 Parents' worries are rising rapidly .
Some parents' appeal is to sell classes as soon as possible . Li Jun, parent of primary school students in Shanghai （ alias ） towards 「 Bullet economy 」 According to ,“ Double subtraction ” After the introduction of the policy , He and the parents and friends around him let the children seize the time , Finish your summer course as soon as possible .
“ My child's summer school has one week left , The organization has not informed us that the course can not be attended now or will be cancelled , Then let's hurry up and finish .” Li Jun said .
Some parents demand a direct refund .“ After the official issuance of the double reduction policy , Although my children signed up K12 Discipline training institutions pacify students' parents for the first time , Said it had no effect for the time being , But I still applied for a course refund .” Zou Li, parents of primary school students in Beijing （ alias ） towards 「 Bullet economy 」 explain , She is mainly worried that once a large number of parents apply for a refund , There will be a run , At that time, the organization may not hold up .
No matter what views or demands you have on the policy , in general ,K12 Parents' attitude towards class registration tends to be cautious .
“ If you sign up again , Usually only sign up for a week's class , We dare not apply for longer courses .” Li Jun said frankly , At present, he is interested in K12 The registration of extracurricular counseling is more cautious . Zou Li also said , Next , She will choose small institutional courses she is relatively familiar with for her children , Each paid study shall not exceed one month .
It is worth mentioning that , Yes “ Double subtraction ” Policy feedback is more than... Direct K12 Parents , It also includes the capital market .
「 Bullet economy 」 be aware ,“ Double subtraction ” The first trading day after the introduction of the policy ,A stocks 、 Hong Kong 、 Education stocks in the three major U.S. stock markets have been hit without exception “ Bloodbath ”.
chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement
First look at A Shares listed K12 Education company share price . By 7 month 26 Closed yesterday , The share price of doushen education plummeted 20.08%, Study big education 、 The shares of ANGLI education and others fell sharply 10%.
meanwhile ,K12 The sharp drop in the share price of education companies spread to the public A Share listed vocational education shares . By 7 month 26 Closed yesterday , The share price of China public education fell more than 10%, achieve 10.03%, The share price of Kaiyuan education fell 9.36%.
Let's look at those listed in Hong Kong K12 Education company share price . By 7 month 26 Closed yesterday , New Oriental's share price plummeted 47.02%, Nearly cut off , Think music education's share price fell more than 45%, achieve 45.45%, The share price of excellence education group fell sharply 42.45%, The share price of New Oriental online fell 33.45%.
similarly , The share prices of private academic education companies listed in Hong Kong stocks have also been affected . By 7 month 26 Closed yesterday , The share price of Tianli education plummeted 29.18%, Yuhua Education 、 Hope Education 、 China Kepei 、 Insight Education 、 The share prices of China Education Holdings and others fell by more than 15%.
Finally, let's look at the listing of U.S. stocks K12 Education company share price . As of US east time 7 month 26 Closed yesterday , New Oriental's share price plummeted 33.79%, Gaotu 、 Good future 、 The share prices of education and other industries all fell more than 26%, The share price of Puxin education fell sharply 22.38%, The share price of headmaster education fell by 19.66%, Elite education shares fell 11.23%.
Other U.S. stocks also fell sharply . As of US east time 7 month 26 Closed yesterday ,51Talk Share price plummet 26.58%, Hong En education's share price fell sharply 17.58%.
It seems that overnight , The enthusiasm of the capital market for education stocks quickly fell to the freezing point , Out of uncertainty about the future development of the domestic education industry , Secondary market investors began to “ Collective escape ”. However , The impact of a paper policy is far more than that .
indeed ,“ Double subtraction ” The implementation of the policy has brought “ shock ”, But it's right K12 The medium and long-term impact of educational institutions is undoubtedly the strongest .
It's just 7 month 30 Japan , A copy about “ The leader's education went bankrupt 、 Employees leave the office collectively and the rent of the office area is refunded ” Wechat chat records of such messages spread in some wechat groups . And then , Zhang Yi, founder of headmaster education, refuted the rumor in the circle of friends , He stressed that the company's current capital is abundant and healthy , We are increasing investment in quality education ,“ It's not easy , This is the time , Do your , Really don't fall into a well again ！”
The little storm experienced by the leader's education , It is only a microcosm of the current development of the industry —— Each family is not easy , But still go all out to seek transformation .
After the implementation of the policy , The most intuitive impact on the industry is ,K12 The income of educational institutions may face “ Waist cut ” even to the extent that “ Knee cut ”.
This is because according to “ Double subtraction ” Policy requirements , Off campus training institutions shall not occupy national legal holidays 、 Organize Discipline Training on rest days and winter and summer holidays , And cha cha K12 Almost all the income of educational institutions comes from the provision of subject training services to students during the above holidays .
More importantly ,K12 Educational institutions will collectively fall into “ Cash flow is tight ” The dilemma of , Carefully analyze the reasons , It is nothing more than the following four points ：
First , The agency's advertising has been stopped .“ Double subtraction ” The policy mentions , Relevant central departments 、 Local Party committees and governments at all levels should strengthen the management of after-school training advertisements , Ensure that mainstream media 、 The new media 、 In public places 、 All kinds of billboards and network platforms in residential areas are not published 、 No advertising for out of school training .
secondly , The listing and financing channels of institutions are blocked .“ Double subtraction ” The policy clearly states , Discipline training institutions shall not be listed for financing , Capitalization is strictly prohibited ; Listed companies shall not invest in discipline training institutions through stock market financing , It is not allowed to purchase the assets of discipline training institutions by issuing shares or paying cash .
Again , The agency's funds are strongly regulated . according to “ Double subtraction ” policy , Through third-party escrow 、 Risk reserve, etc , Carry out risk management and control on the pre charge of out of school training institutions , Strengthen the supervision of loans in the field of training , Effective prevention “ Refund is difficult ”、“ Roll money and run away ” Wait for the problem to happen .
Last , Institutions need to fill the gap of refund . To engage in for a long time K12 Chen Liang from the education and training industry （ alias ） towards 「 Bullet economy 」 Say frankly , Before the introduction of the policy , quite a lot K12 Discipline training institutions have collected autumn class tuition from parents in advance , And almost all institutions use advance receipts for other purposes , Once the refund is too large , There is a high risk of a crash .
Maybe because of the tight cash flow , Some head players need to optimize operation and reduce costs , I have to open “ downsized ” action .
According to the delay LatePost reports , Tal founder Zhang Bangxin is in “ Double subtraction ” An internal speech after the introduction of the policy said ：“ Layoffs are certain .” Businesses without demand will certainly be shut down , If employees in corresponding businesses can be transferred internally, they will be transferred first , Those who can't be transferred , The company will also compensate in accordance with national laws .
Besides , It's just “ Double subtraction ” The day after the policy was issued , Chen Xiangdong, founder of gaotu group, convened a management meeting , Set targets for layoffs ： The national 13 A local center , stay 8 month 1 The closure was completed a few days ago , Only Zhengzhou 、 wuhan 、 Three tutor centers in Chengdu , Each center has an average of thousands of people , Involving tens of thousands of people , Rough calculation , Equivalent to gaotu 1/3 People will leave .
thus , The head players have entered “ A state of emergency ”, Not to mention players at the waist of the industry , The situation they face is even less optimistic —— Not only by the layers of head players , It is also easy to be robbed by tail players . however , It's important to point out that ,“ Double subtraction ” The policy has a relatively small impact on tail players .
Of course , Except for the sharp decline in income 、 Common effects such as tight cash flow ,K12 Educational institutions will also face different impacts .
Press “ Double subtraction ” Policy requirements , While comprehensively carrying out governance work , Determine the city of Beijing 、 Shanghai 、 Shenyang 、 guangzhou 、 Chengdu 、 Zhengzhou city 、 Changzhi City 、 Weihai City 、 Nantong City, etc 9 Cities are pilot cities nationwide , This means that those who have business in pilot cities across the country K12 educational services , Will be the first to be “ crit ”, Others K12 Educational institutions will have more time for transformation and adjustment .
chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement
It is also worth noting , Those already on the market K12 Educational institutions may face the risk of delisting . in the first place , It is almost impossible for the market value of general shares in education to rise back to the original level , Whether the current stock price can be maintained , It also depends on its subsequent transformation results ; Second, , suffer “ Double subtraction ” Policy and previous fraud of zhonggai shares , The trust of American investors in zhonggai shares is still in doubt .
Predictably enough , The environment of foreign stock exchange market will become worse and worse .“ under these circumstances , It doesn't make much sense to stay in the US stock market .” Senior education investor Xu Hua is right 「 Bullet economy 」 Say .
And those that have not yet been listed but have received financing K12 Education companies are not easy .
“ If it's financing millions , Investors can recognize , But if you raise hundreds of millions , Investors recognize , It will be difficult to tell the behind LP Confession . If LP dissatisfied , It means that investors want to start from LP It will become more and more difficult to get money in your pocket .” Xu Hua said .
He also noted that , Especially the funds in the later stage of investment PE, The capital scale required by the invested enterprise itself is large . This has also led to PE You may only have enough money to invest 3-5 A project , If this 3-5 None of the projects are likely to be listed , that PE The trouble is obviously not small .
But the problem is , There is a high probability that the invested enterprise will not be able to repay the debt . Xu Hua analyzes , Although advertising was stopped , It can save part of the marketing cost for the company . however , Operation and maintenance 、 The server 、 Costs such as wages and expenses are incurred every day .“ therefore , The company can't get a lot of money at once .” He said .
therefore , Investors are likely to directly sue the invested enterprise in the court with the investment contract or even the gambling agreement .“ Unless the court does not support , The reasons given, such as policy supervision, are force majeure factors . In this case , Investors will recognize .” Xu Hua said frankly .
however , Chen Liang is slightly optimistic about the exit of investors . According to him , The investment circle has always existed “ Front and rear cable trays ” That's what I'm saying .“ such as A You cast the round , We have a very good relationship ,B Round, whether it works or not ,B I have to support you , It's about valuations .C Who will take the turn ,C Lundachang connects , Do you make money , When you don't make money and no one wants it , Big factories may also take , It may be useless for big factories to ask you , But just to help you . The difference is that one is investment , One is the receiving plate .” Chen Liang said .
face “ Double subtraction ” The impact of policy introduction ,K12 Educational institutions are motivated by “ Survival instinct ”, Nor is there no way to deal with it .
A more feasible defense strategy is , Add teaching sites in non pilot cities . Feng Hao, an executive of an off campus training institution, told 「 Bullet economy 」 Express ,K12 Chain discipline training institutions can transfer students who apply for classes in pilot cities to surrounding cities that are not pilot but have obtained school running qualification , Teachers in the campus of the pilot city are responsible for giving them classes .
“ Although a few parents may not want to , But most parents are willing to , The key is that this operation is logically compliant . however , Once reported, there will be trouble , If small and medium-sized institutions carry out such operations, it may not be a big deal , But big institutions may not be so lucky . After all , Relevant departments focus on large institutions .” Feng Hao said .
Besides ,K12 Educational institutions can also acquire the brand of teaching auxiliary books first , With the help of online channels and brand resources, we will launch our own teaching auxiliary books .
According to Feng Hao , Originally, books didn't make much money , Because it is mainly sold to readers through offline publicity channels , After a series of operations such as giving rebates to channel providers , The profits that can be left are naturally very few .
But if you design a popular book in the form of the Internet , Especially the popular books related to teaching aids , In a sense, the cost is much lower . at present , Some books make money , Because its main sales channel is not offline bookstores , But tmall 、 Jingdong and other online channels .“ So far , There is still a dividend period of half a year or about a year , If children don't attend training institutions , Then you can buy books from training institutions ？” Feng Hao said .
More Than This ,K12 Educational institutions can also deal with... By setting up many book studios “ Double subtraction ” The impact of policy .
Feng Hao said , some K12 Educational institutions can let each famous teacher set up a Book studio with a group of people , Build a strictly selective platform for them to publish content , Choose a topic , Through partnership , Run this business in a lighter mode .“ So even if the company cuts jobs , Not all of them .”
actually , such “ Book Studio ” More like what people say today “ Private traffic ”—— The stickiness between traditional books and users is generally very low , Internet books are usually put in the official account of WeChat by the author , Readers add author friends , By replying to key words , Get the official account number .
meanwhile , Readers can also ask for help in the wechat group established by the author , This interaction is also conducive to a stronger relationship between the two 、 More trusted relationships , It is also more effective for subsequent business transformation .
It is also worth noting , For relatively high flow K12 educational services , Paying for knowledge may be one direction . Feng Hao thinks ,K12 Educational institutions can answer questions 、 Consultation and recording and broadcasting lessons are charged , Instead of having to rely on charging parents thousands or even tens of thousands of high value-added classes at one time .
besides , Some big K12 Educational institutions can also try to split themselves into several small and medium-sized institutions . at present , Some large organizations with more than 10000 employees are still directly managed by one person .“ This is a typical rigid tube .” Chen Liang said .
however , Normally , Many large enterprises have dozens or hundreds of companies , Every company has CEO Or president , And operate independently . Generally, the parent company only needs to control the financial data of its subsidiaries .“ Why do you have to manage tens of thousands of people directly ？” Chen Liang said .
Of course , Transformation is still K12 The best way out for educational institutions at present —— Such as quality education 、 Vocational education 、 Educational hardware, etc , It's all from the outside K12 The transformation direction of educational institutions .
chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement
Take quality education for example , Affected by favorable policies , Quality education is becoming more and more necessary . Originally, quality education for students' parents , Namely “ Can learn, can't learn ”, It is more just as “ Hobby ” To look at , It's different now , The importance of quality education has become increasingly prominent .
“ what's more , The students covered by the organization have quality education needs , Especially primary school students , There is little need to expand new people . therefore , The transformation of quality education is inseparable from K12 Subject training recent .” Feng Hao said .
however , In Xu Hua's opinion , Before the transformation ,K12 Educational institutions must pay attention to whether the relationship between their own business system and the transformed business system is close enough .
For example, children's art and children's trusteeship ,K12 The success rate of discipline training institutions in the field of children's trusteeship is generally higher than that in the field of children's art . Because the age group of users contacted by the organization is relatively continuous , And the teaching system of art education and subject education 、 There are great differences in curriculum system and teacher training system .
that ,K12 Whether educational institutions can be transformed into Vocational Education ？ At present , It is generally accepted in the industry ,K12 If educational institutions want to transform Vocational Education ,“ The difficulty coefficient ” It will be very high .
One side , The renewal rate of vocational education is almost 0.“ such as , Participation in public office 、 One's deceased father grind 、 Legal examination and other qualification examination training , Whether you pass the exam or not , Students usually don't renew their fees . Ultra low renewal rate , This means that the organization needs to constantly acquire new users .” Xu Hua said .
On the other hand , Each subdivision of vocational education has its own characteristics , And play differently . Take the accounting examination and training industry as an example , If the entrants do keyword advertising on the search engine as soon as they come up , Not only is it difficult to get back to the original , Maybe even put yourself “ cast ” die , Because the touch rate is very low .
“ After all , There are only a few accountants in a company , Still in the deepest part of the room , You said how you reached them ？ They will go to the search engine to search for things related to eating, drinking and fun , But it may be rare to search ‘ accounting ’ Related words .” Feng Hao said frankly .
Besides , Chen Liang also revealed , A head K12 Online education institutions have laid out the field of vocational education as early as a year ago , But from the results , At present, only one business line of its vocational education sector can barely maintain “ Level the front end ” The state of .
Because compare K12 education , Vocational education has more sub categories , And there are great differences between the standards of each category and users , In addition, users are scattered and other reasons , The trial and error cost of new players is extremely high .
chart / Photo net , be based on VRF agreement
what's more , The new player's genes have actually determined whether it can quickly switch to the second “ Lifeline ” Business .“ There are only a few successful cases of institutional transformation , You don't want to transform into .” Chen Liang said .
therefore ,K12 Educational institutions should not rush to grab some so-called hot outlets , And don't rush into transformation like a frightened bird .“ After all , If it turns out to be a huge pit , Every year, we have to bleed to subsidize , Then this transformation is meaningless .” Xu Hua said .
He thinks that ,K12 Educational institutions should combine policy guidance 、 Own cash flow 、 Teaching and research form 、 And customer needs to do in-depth understanding and mining , Develop products that meet market demand and have long-term large-scale commercial value .
Besides , For those that have received financing but are not listed K12 For educational enterprises , The founder should actively communicate the company's strategic transformation direction with the company's shareholders , And set some medium and short-term goals according to the time node , To verify whether the transformation direction is correct .
“ If the goal of the enterprise is basically achieved , And some shareholders want to quit , Who can provide more resources in the process of company transformation 、 Talent and other support , Who can give priority to exit according to the reasonable valuation after discount established by both parties . And if the invested enterprise really doesn't pay the investment money , Its future development is not favored by investors , that , Both parties can agree to negotiate share repurchase with investors after the invested enterprise has stable cash flow . such as , How much does the management of the invested enterprise pay each year , How many periods will the shares in the hands of investors be repurchased .” Xu Hua said .
without doubt , This is triggered by a paper policy “ Industry earthquake ” Yu Wei constantly , Parents are either worried or in favor of 、 Organization or transformation or exit 、 Capital or escape or bargain hunting …… overall , The future development of the education industry is still in a fog , But how to find a new way out of uncertainty , This is also the fundamental test of the vitality of the industry .
Now , The big test has come ,K12 What kind of answers will the educational and training institutions hand over ？
* The picture is from ： Photo net , be based on VRF agreement .
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