Netease automotive industry 2021-08-09 14:52:46 阅读数:914
recently , The heart of the car industry media reported that , The first stock of automatic driving Tucson will start the car building project in the future , By the future chairman of Tucson 、 primary CEO Chen Mo leads the team . Although Tucson has not commented on this in the future , But here “ All people build cars ” The s , Even if Tucson's future official announced to build a car , The industry is not surprised .
What's more? , Automatic driving company makes cars , There is a precedent in the industry .Zoox Since its inception, it has called for the redesign of unmanned vehicles from scratch , Instead of carrying various sensors on the existing body .
As far as the actual situation is concerned , Entering the bureau to build cars may be a way out for automatic driving companies , Just want to go out of their own way 、 Breaking the game is not easy .
There is an urgent need to find a breakthrough
about 5-6 Years ago , Most autonomous companies are shouting that a certain level of autonomous vehicles is about to 2020 It landed around 2000 . Just before the time node , Almost all the enterprises that have made bold statements have begun to “ Recognize and encourage ”.2018 end of the year ,Waymo front CEO John Krafcik stay WSJ D.Live Recognized at the technical conference , Although there have been self driving cars in reality , But they are far from universal . Apple Union Co creation Beginning person Steve Wozniak Similar views were subsequently expressed ： Self driving cars can not be realized in the near future .
Bain consulting 2018 In predicting , To 2030 Auto driving year will take up 30％ Market share . Now? , The company has put this number back to 4%-9%.
indeed , Whether it's doing Robotaxi, Or automatic driving in a specific scene , Or more difficult mass production automatic driving , Both mass production and commercial realization face challenges . such as , The competition for dominance between the automotive industry and autopilot players , It makes the road of cooperation full of hardships and uncertainty .
picture source ：Waymo
Some time ago , At the shareholders' meeting of SAIC Group , Questions from investors , Will SAIC consider cooperating with Huawei's third-party company in automatic driving . Chen Hong reply , Working with third-party companies like Huawei to drive automatically , SAIC is unacceptable . In this way , It becomes the soul , SAIC became a body . SAIC should hold its soul in its own hands . It doesn't matter if Chen Hong is here “ Soul theory ” Is the argument Tenable , But obviously , Vehicle manufacturers have understood that automatic driving technology is important , More importantly, you should have the leading power , Otherwise, it may be eliminated to the downstream of the industrial chain in the future .
One side , Whether it is traditional car enterprises or new forces of car making , They have realized that we must pay attention to the self-study of the whole stack . It means , Automatic driving track “ Internal volume ” exacerbate . Polar krypton Intelligent technology CEO An Conghui once said , Krypton will increase R & D investment and organization construction in the field of new four modernizations , Build intelligent software and hardware full stack self-development capability . except geely , The Great Wall The car announced that it would self-study the whole stack, including from the bottom BSP All software to the upper application layer , It is planned to be based on SOA Build a unified 、 Standardized software platform .
He Xiaopeng, who has always adhered to the self-study of the whole stack, once shared his thoughts , That is, the era of intelligent vehicles in which software defines cars , Car enterprises will become their first-class suppliers in intelligence , The original intelligent primary supplier will degenerate into a secondary supplier .
On the other hand , Want to drive automatically and build cars “ Catch at both ends ” Of IT There are not a few giants , This further aggravates the pressure of automatic driving enterprises . At the beginning of the New Year , Baidu announced the formal formation of a smart car company , Enter the automotive industry as a vehicle manufacturer . Geely Holding Group will become a strategic partner of the new company .
picture source ： Baidu
But in fact , Baidu is one of the first companies to get involved in automatic driving in China 、 Automotive technology is an intelligent technology company . Before 2017 year , Baidu will release Apollo Autopilot plan , It aims to provide an opening to partners in the automotive industry and in the field of autonomous driving 、 complete 、 Secure software platform .6 month , Baidu has just launched a new generation of mass production and sharing unmanned vehicles Apollo Moon, The goal is to make travel cheaper than today's online car Hailing .
Based on the status quo , Autopilot companies have to think about how to go in the future . The real problem is , If you are just a technical solution supplier , Then the automatic driving company is facing the bottleneck of landing and commercialization in front loading mass production of passenger cars . The present , Although players have landed L4, But it is mainly applied to limited scenarios , And on a smaller scale . As far as the front loading mass production passenger car market is concerned , The existing L4 Not just needed , And low cost performance . therefore , Both consumers and OEMs are probably more willing to let the bullet fly for a while . In addition, regulations and technical safety issues , This path is basically blocked .
If you choose to be a travel operator , Then the automatic driving company needs to run in with the main engine factory on vehicle procurement , Provide users with long-term service and quality assurance . This mode of operation sounds closer to the business model , But we still have to face the high cost of early investment 、 Problems such as long liquidation cycle in the later stage . Here is a typical example ：Uber During the epidemic last year, it will its autonomous driving subsidiary ATG Sold to start-ups Aurora.
At the time ,Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi In an interview , The deal will accelerate the company's 2021 The pace of achieving profitability by the end of the year . Between the lines ： The automatic driving business is the key to its commercialization “ stumbling block ”. But in fact , Before that ,Uber He has also sought various options for his autonomous driving business , Including more external investment .
Sum up , Building a car is for many autopilot players , As a last resort , It's fate .
Building a car is by no means easy
The present , Most self driving enterprises have realized that transformation can continue to tell stories ,AutoX It's one of them .4 month , The autopilot company announced its investment in the intelligent travel brand aikonik , So as to lead and promote L4 Production of class I driverless mass production models .
Although auto driving companies make cars to keep the story going , But it's not easy to get a satisfactory ending .2007 year , At the first generation Apple conference, jobs quoted the famous saying of the winner of the award ,People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware. these 2021 year ,Alan Kay This sentence is still out of date . It's just , Compared with mobile phone production , The threshold for entering the automobile market is much higher .
First , This is another very realistic problem , There is not enough money , Unable to support dreams .Zoox End “ prostitution ” The important reason for Amazon is “ To be straitened for money ”, Even in the 2018 year 2 month , It also set a single round financing record for automatic driving companies at that time .
picture source :Zoox
As a heavy asset business , There is no doubt that building a car costs money . Completed in Xiaopeng car A+ After round financing , He Xiaopeng sighed ： I used to see people build cars 100 It's too much , Now feel 200 It's not enough to spend . What's the difference between burning money for building a car and burning money for automatic driving ？ The difference lies in , The former can continue to tell stories .
secondly , Making a car is not just a competition “ Burn money ” The speed of . In the case of autonomous driving companies , Better at software 、 Algorithm related ; And just “ Car making ” In this case , The essence will not change —— Fusion of countless parts 、 Bring together the most cutting-edge technologies in various industries , Constantly test, match and adjust , This means that new entrants need to endure loneliness 、 Resilient . In other words , Do automatic driving and build cars , The tests faced by these two paths are completely different .
Because the road of building cars is not easy , So in the process of transformation , Some players also began to explore diversified development paths . such as , Previously focused on Robotaxi Self driving companies are also starting to enter the field of unmanned trucks . This year, 3 month , Xiaoma Zhihang announced the brand name of truck business for the first time ——“ Little Marca ”. This indicates that Ma Zhixing is in the field of automatic driving , Formal formation “ Self driving passenger car + Self driving commercial vehicle ” Business layout of two wheel drive .
All in all , It must be good , No matter what , Making cars may become an important breakthrough for automatic driving enterprises . Capital has poured into the field of automobile manufacturing , The future is full of variables , It is not ruled out that one, two or three companies will emerge suddenly , The winner will have a reason to win . Automatic driving enterprises can only give full play to their own advantages , Stay in awe , To explore the way to break the game .
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