Tight supply and overcapacity coexist in the lithium industry

Netease automotive industry 2021-08-10 12:49:10 阅读数:435

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tight supply overcapacity coexist lithium

( The original title : Tight power battery supply and overcapacity coexist Lithium battery industry " Fire and ice are two days ")

Intelligent electric vehicles are developing with indomitable momentum . Accordingly , The upstream and downstream enterprises of the power battery industry chain also start from 2020 The second half of the year began to usher in rising performance and investment fever .

“ from 2021 Year begins , The global lithium battery market demand has increased significantly , But for now , The capacity supply of the whole industrial chain is relatively slow , Insufficient effective supply .” Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, believes that , The demand for power batteries is growing explosively , The capacity supply of the whole supply chain will face challenges .

In this context , Several mainstream lithium battery listed companies are accelerating the pace of capacity layout . However , Related problems have become increasingly prominent —— Power battery hype overheating 、 Structural overcapacity 、 Insufficient capacity utilization has occurred .

Partner of new energy vehicle venture capital sub fund of national science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund and President Fang Jianhua is right 《 Securities daily 》 The reporter said , at present , The phenomenon of tight power battery supply and overcapacity coexist . On the one hand, the supply of high-end and high-quality production capacity is insufficient , On the other hand, the low-end products are short of capacity and order . From the supply side , Head battery enterprises accelerate capacity expansion , Is to improve the supply of high-end production capacity .

Lithium industry companies

When capital increase and production expansion are in progress

2021 year , It is the year of capacity expansion of major power battery enterprises , The establishment of a new company has become the common choice of many listed lithium battery companies .

4 month 28 Japan , Ningde Times announced that , Quasi and ATL The company jointly funded the establishment of two joint ventures , Engaged in household energy storage 、 Research and development of medium-sized batteries in the field of electric two wheeled vehicles 、 production 、 Sales and after sales service , One of them is a cell joint venture , Ningde times 70%, The other is a battery pack joint venture , Ningde times 30%.

7 month 6 Japan , Tianqi lithium announced that , Previously with Australian listed companies IGO The capital increase and share expansion signed has been completed . According to the company's previous announcement , The capital obtained from this capital increase is intended to be mainly used to repay the amount owed to the company's wholly-owned subsidiary by the internal restructuring , And supplementary funds for the operation and commissioning of its quinana lithium hydroxide plant .

7 month 9 Japan , Yiwei lithium energy released a notice saying , Proposed acquisition of jinkunlun 28.125% Equity of , And cooperate with Jin Kunlun to establish a joint venture in Qinghai Province , The installment investment shall not exceed 18 Billion element Build an annual output of 3 10000 ton lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide project , The first phase of the project will be built with an annual output of 1 10000 ton lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide project , Yiwei lithium energy will hold the joint venture 80% equity .

Besides , A number of listed companies related to lithium batteries have increased their lithium battery business through capital increase and share allotment .《 Securities daily 》 Reporters noted that , GuoXuan high tech 3 month 16 "The announcement said , Hefei GuoXuan and Liuzhou investment, wholly-owned subsidiaries of the company, respectively increased the capital of Liuzhou GuoXuan in cash , Provide financial support for the construction of Liuzhou GuoXuan lithium battery production base , Accelerate the layout of Liuzhou new energy power battery market , Expand market space .

Ganfeng lithium Co., Ltd 6 month 10 in H Allotment of shares 4804 Ten thousand new shares , It is planned to estimate the total net proceeds from the placement 48.55 HK $billion for capacity expansion and construction 、 Potential investments 、 Supplement working capital and general corporate purposes , The capacity expansion construction mainly involves overseas lithium resource projects , Potential investments may include minerals 、 brine 、 Lithium clay, etc .

In just over half a year , Major domestic lithium battery listed companies have announced capital increase plans , The popularity of the lithium battery industry can be seen . meanwhile , Under the dual guidance of carbon neutralization and lithium battery echelon utilization , Many enterprises have also begun to layout lithium battery recycling business .

Product structural overcapacity

The safety problem of power battery is prominent

According to the 《 Securities daily 》 Reporters understand , An important reason for lithium battery listed companies to increase capital and expand production through various ways , At present, the power battery is facing the problem of insufficient supply .“ Everyone is crazy about expanding production , Not enough capacity , The next five years will be a period of rapid production expansion .” Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of honeycomb energy, once said , At a certain time this year, honeycomb energy's orders reached 8GWh, But at that time, it could only produce 5GWh.

however , On the one hand, lithium battery enterprises are expanding their production crazily , On the other side is the question of capacity utilization . Take the Ningde era for example , According to the company's financial report data ,2019 The annual capacity utilization rate of the company was 89.17%, and 2020 In the first half of the year, the capacity utilization rate was only 52.50%.

“ This contradiction is that the market is not simply short of batteries , It's the lack of high-end batteries .” Lin Shi, a Sina Financial columnist, said , Products that can really meet the performance requirements and market demand of vehicle enterprises , There is no overcapacity . Barbaric growth in recent years 、 Speculative battery products seem to be in high production , But vehicle manufacturers will not use it easily .

But the reporter noticed , In the face of growing car orders , There are many car companies that retreat to the second place , Choose to use low-end batteries with relatively poor performance on some low-end models , To meet the power battery gap . But this has also caused another problem in the current power battery industry —— Battery safety problems occur frequently . In the near future , A large number of recalls have led the industry to discuss the safety of lithium batteries again .

7 month 16 Japan , Due to the consistency of some power batteries and BMS There are matching differences in software control strategies , In extreme cases, thermal runaway of power battery may occur , The Great Wall Car recall 1.62 Thousands of cars Euler IQ;7 month 23 Japan , chery There may be consistency fluctuation due to the assembly of some parts in the power battery , Recalled 1407 car Ariza 5e Parameters picture ) electric vehicle .

In terms of joint venture car enterprises ,7 month 23 Japan , General Motors announced , Risk of fire due to defective battery modules , Nearly... Will be recalled worldwide 6.9 Ten thousand Chevrolets Bolt Electric cars ; On the same day , Toyota announced , because ELFA The idle start and stop function of the battery is imperfect and the thermal insulation performance of the battery is insufficient , In extreme cases, rear end collision may occur , The company will recall 12955 Taiwan imports ELFA .

Next stage , The concentration of lithium battery market will also increase , Industry shuffle will continue . Fang Jianhua believes that ,2021 It is still a good year for the development of lithium battery industry , But not all enterprises will usher in good .“ In the early stage of Industrial Development , Everyone will rush , However, the enterprises that can finally stand the test of the market must continue to develop their core competitiveness ”.

Technical aspects ,2021 In the field of power battery materials , High nickel positive electrode 、 Silicon carbon anode material 、 New composite fluid collecting materials and conductive materials , There will be some new technology introduction and even breakthrough . Fang Jianhua said ,“ The early power batteries pursued energy density excessively , And weaken other aspects of performance , Nowadays, the above new technologies will play a very key role in improving the performance of power batteries .”

In the capital market ,“ Cathode material lithium hydroxide 、 Lithium carbonate , Cathode material lithium hexafluorophosphate 、 The diaphragm 、 Material of motor accessories: copper foil , And lithium battery testing equipment have been in the hype route of the concept of lithium battery .” Lin Shi, a Sina Financial columnist, said , For lithium battery stocks that are now at an all-time high , Investors need to be wary of lithium “ Exploration to mining ” The impact of variables such as long work cycle and tight purchase of raw materials in the market . Some fund managers even said , For the lithium battery track, hype overheated stocks , existing 15%-20% Psychological expectation of decline .

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