qubit 2021-08-10 17:13:13 阅读数:766
When searching on an East “ Brain-machine interface ”、“ Mind control ” These words , Look at the product pages from top to bottom , You will also feel Brain-machine interface Is it far from your daily life ？
Of course , Brain computer interface industry is far more than the tip of the iceberg in front of you .
What you can see is a small brain computer interface device , What I can't see is that the whole huge brain computer interface industry is quietly growing .
Because it is in the early stage of barbaric growth , The brain computer interface industry in China and even the world presents “ flowers ” The state of .
According to the products and services provided , Domestic brain computer interface companies can be divided into three roles ： Infrastructure providers 、 product /APP provider and Secondary customization service provider .
Such companies entered the field of brain computer interface earlier , And its own R & D strength is strong , So I chose the electrode material 、 chip 、 Software algorithms start at the bottom The whole stack is self-developed , So as to form barriers and core advantages .
This kind of company Payback period Summer Solstice 10 In the above , And it needs talents in many disciplines and fields, including neuroscience .
therefore , The threshold of capital and talents is very high , The moat is also very deep .
In the investor's view , This has High tech barriers , So as to enter more fields of platform companies , More advantages and imagination space in the future .
The key competitiveness of such companies lies in the industry appeal and the bottom self-developed technical ability .
Such companies sell their products directly , Is the most influential role in the industry , However, the coverage of such companies in the industrial chain is limited .
Since the secondary development can only be carried out based on the detection output results of hardware products , Such companies cannot determine the performance of their products 、 function 、 Price etc. , Relatively limited in the degree of freedom of development .
because The investment is realized quickly （3 About years ago ）, Such company estimates are the focus of capital attention in the short term , At the same time The number is growing the fastest Categories .
The key competitiveness is to develop demand scenarios 、 Maintain business relationships with partners .
Such companies work with partners on customized development .
Partners provide industry knowledge and related hardware in specific industries ( A safety helmet 、VR glasses 、 Robots, etc ), BCI provides relevant equipment and development capabilities .
For such companies , Industry specific customers Large scale purchase intention , It can be regarded as a key node to prove that the scenario requirements and product capabilities are basically mature .
The key competitiveness of such companies also lies in industry expansion and cooperation system construction .
Most well-known BCI companies will choose Three types of roles develop in parallel .
First , Form bottom self-study for key technical points , Form a voice on Key Infrastructure . secondly , Launch products directly for key markets , With consumer grade products / Realize R & D investment with application or scientific research equipment .
Last , Some larger companies will also connect with other industry partners for new scenarios with high potential , Product customization together , Seize the new track .
The water is big , Fish will be big .
Brain computer interface industry “ flowers ”, It is inseparable from the continuous and rapid growth of brain computer interface market .
Calculated by qubit analysts , At present, the market scale of brain computer interface optical equipment in China has been increasing Billion RMB level . Except for a few hard core players , Brain computer interface equipment is mostly supplied to scientific research and medical institutions .
According to Zhentai intelligent analysis , The market of BCI pure equipment in China , When combined with specific use scenarios, it will produce obvious Amplification effect , The future may reach Hundreds of billions of scale .
here we are 2040 year , Brain computer interface in China Pure equipment market size Expected to reach 560 RMB , The compound annual growth rate is 21%.
Comprehensive market size More will achieve 1250 RMB , The compound annual growth rate is 26%.
China's brain computer interface market will not only lead the world , And its share in the global market will also rise significantly .
Although the future can be expected , But we should also recognize that the development of brain computer interface industry in China is relatively backward , The market is not mature yet Reality .
Sporadic purchase of a certain Dongshang brain computer interface equipment , It shows that there are serious deficiencies in the recognition of brain computer interface by Chinese consumers .
According to the Neurosky Shennian technology estimates , Domestic in brain computer interface Cultivation of consumption habits There is a difference between China and foreign countries 10 year .
Thanks to China's huge Population base , Brain computer interface industry does have the possibility of short-term market outbreak , The long-term market scale also has great imagination space .
It is different from the public's emphasis on low-level scientific and technological breakthroughs , In the future development of brain computer interface industry , first-class Brain computer interface company In fact, it plays a more critical role .
The sustained and rapid growth of the scale of an emerging market , Cannot do without Extension of product usage scenarios and Cultivation of consumer cognition .
adopt Mining needs 、 Coordination and cooperation And finally Complete product landing , These companies are responsible for expanding the imagination of the industry 、 The important task of promoting the long-term good development of the industry .
At present, a major dilemma of brain computer interface in China is Lack of appropriate scenarios .
The industry still needs to find usage scenarios that can better highlight the advantages of brain computer interface , And create corresponding products .
Medical rehabilitation is recognized Rigid market , Growth is most certain in the short term .
Compared with the large investment of foreign companies in using invasive means to treat difficult problems , Domestic companies are limited by technology and worry about high risk and long cycle , More inclined The field of rehabilitation and Noninvasive .
In the existing scenarios and products launched by domestic companies , BCI does not have the necessary role of innovation or absolute performance advantage , Functional appeal to patients is limited .
In fact, BCI as a tool industry , The flexibility of external extension is very strong . Based on attention detection 、 Core abilities such as brain state detection , Can undertake driving 、 The construction of the 、 A lot of extended scenes such as education .
With the industry ecology, the technical threshold is reduced , Able to focus on scene mining and demand cultivation Application companies The number will increase , It has become the biggest driving force in the brain computer interface industry in the near future .
Because the scale of domestic brain computer interface industry is still very small , Industry participants want to use more cooperation 、 to open up Not competition , Jointly expand the business scope of brain computer interface industry Industrial influence , Solve the primary survival problem of the industry .
At present, a major survival problem in the industry is The development of industrial chain is not perfect , Lack of proprietary suppliers . Chip field It can be regarded as the weakest link in China's brain computer interface industry chain , Subject to Texas electric （ Signal processing chip TI AD1299）、 Italian French semiconductor （ Program controlled single chip microcomputer STM32） And other foreign manufacturers .
meanwhile , BCI belongs to Highly systematic Industry , Need overall coordination among industries . for example , The low efficiency of a single link of surgical implantation will directly affect the effect of the overall implantation scheme , Then hinder the development of the scene .
stay Neuralink In previously published mouse experiments , Industry insiders generally believe that the most important progress is to improve the implantation efficiency “ Sewing machine ” Implant device .
This focus reflects the industry's focus on Overall industrial coordination The importance of .
Many companies in the industry that undertake infrastructure providers pass Standardized module 、 Open ecosystem Gradually open the underlying capabilities to the outside world .
This helps to lower the threshold for outsiders to enter the field of brain computer interface , Let more companies join the brain computer interface industry Industrial chain construction .
As for the problem that the current scientific research achievements of the industry cannot be effectively transformed into clinical application , It is more necessary for well-known brain computer interface companies to exert their influence in the industry , Lead brain computer interface company 、 Industry Association 、 In depth cooperation between different institutions , Realization production 、 learn 、 study Close fit of .
Because BCI industry is a new industry , The technical difference between China and foreign countries in the field of brain computer interface , Compared with other traditional technology fields Overtaking in curve The opportunity of .
Practitioners generally believe that the gap between China and Europe and the United States in the field of brain computer interface technology is only 5 To 10 year .
in fact , Brain computer interface in China and even the world , In recent years, there has been a lack of substantive technological breakthroughs , The competition is more from laboratory results to engineering and Commercialization The ability to land .
By fully iterating the use scenarios of the product , Promote the rapid engineering of products , Excellent brain computer interface companies will help the industry solve the liquidity problem of high R & D investment , Realize the effective connection between scientific research end and consumption end , Quickly smooth the gap between China and foreign countries in the implementation of brain computer interface technology .
In the future, brain computer interface companies are seizing Market segmentation 、 Key technical capability On , There may be significant competition .
stay EEG acquisition equipment for scientific research and Sleep detection Two key market segments ,TOP The company's market share exceeds 70%.
meanwhile , In the future planning of each company , material science 、 microelectronics 、 chip Has become a common technical focus .
Take the lead in completing the lead layout , After competing for core technical talents , Brain computer interface leader Monopoly effect May further enhance .
But with the gradual formation of open ecology and infrastructure , There will also be more and more market-oriented Applied brain computer interface company appear .
this Fine differentiation The method is also a relatively low threshold method suggested by people in the industry , Both avoid a head-on confrontation with the head company , It also contributes to the rapid expansion of industrial scale .
in addition , In the whole technical link of BCI , The most important thing is Neural decoding .
At present, human beings have not really mastered the coding law of neural signals , therefore Advanced human-computer interaction be unable to do sth. .
Once there is a major breakthrough in the field of underlying science and technology , Humans have really mastered the door of neural signals “ Language ”, send Advanced human-computer interaction It is expected to become a reality , Brain computer interface industry will usher in new huge growth .
Back up in the official account of the qubit “ Brain-machine interface ”, Download the full qubit 《 BCI depth industry analysis report 》.
in addition , The report will be released tomorrow Essence version PPT Reading , Stay tuned .
On qubits ：
Qubit's scientific and technological innovation industry link platform . Committed to providing systematic research in the field of cutting-edge science and technology and technological innovation . Frontiers oriented AI& Computer 、 Bio Computing 、 The latest technological innovation in the fields of quantum technology and health care , Provide systematic reporting and awareness . Through the media 、 Community and offline activities , Help decision makers grasp the direction of innovation earlier .
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Original publication time ： 2021-08-09
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