Passenger Federation: 1.5 million passenger cars were retailed in July, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%

Netease automotive industry 2021-08-10 22:23:13 阅读数:332

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Netease car 8 month 10 Reported Wednesday     8 month 10 Japan , The passenger Union will release 7 Monthly national passenger car market analysis data . data display ,7 month , In the narrow sense, the retail of passenger car market has reached 150.0 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year decline in 6.2%, fell 4.9%. Comparison 2019 year 7 month ,2021 year 7 Monthly sales growth 1%.

1-7 month , China's narrow passenger car retail has reached 1144.5 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 22.9%, a 1-6 Monthly growth rate decreased 6 percentage .

The Federation said ,7 Month is the traditional off-season , International chip supply is insufficient and uncertain , It also leads to 7 One of the reasons for the year-on-year decline in retail sales in January . and 1-7 The reason for the month's super growth , Mainly 2020 year 1-7 In June, the cumulative retail sales of the national narrow passenger car market fell 19% The low base effect of . Secondly, the contribution of new energy vehicles to the growth is increasing , Yes 1-7 The monthly year-on-year growth rate contributed 10 percentage .

New energy vehicles ,7 month , Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 22.2 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 169.4%, fell 3.2%.1-7 month , Retail of new energy vehicles 122.9 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 210.2%.

 Take the cib :7 Retail of passenger cars in May 150 Thousands of cars Year-on-year decline in 6.2%

Continue to destock 7 Retail sales of independent brands increased year-on-year in January 20%

Production area ,7 month , Passenger car production 152.9 Thousands of cars , Year on year 2020 year 7 Month down 9.5%, Among them, the production of luxury brands decreased year-on-year 2%, The production of joint venture brands decreased 33%, Independent brand production growth 30%.

1-7 month , Cumulative production of passenger cars 1108.2 Thousands of cars , Year on year 2020 Annual growth 21.2%.

The Federation said , The recent chip shortage affects the production rhythm , but 7 Near the moon 30% The output of automobile enterprises reached a new high this year , Reflect the trend of gradual improvement of chip supply . In particular, traditional auto enterprises with independent brands and new energy auto enterprises strengthen their supply chain advantages , Effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage , obtain 7 Monthly production month on month 6 Good performance of monthly growth .

 Take the cib :7 Retail of passenger cars in May 150 Thousands of cars Year-on-year decline in 6.2%

Wholesale level ,7 month , Wholesale sales of manufacturers 150.7 Thousands of cars , fell 1.9%, Year-on-year decline in 8.2%, a 19 year 7 Month down 1%.1-7 Monthly cumulative wholesale sales 1132.8 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 21.6%, a 2019 In the same period of the year 15 Thousands of cars .

Inventory level , Destocking this year is obvious , Manufacturers' inventories have remained low in recent months .7 At the end of the month, the manufacturer's inventory increased month on month 2 Thousands of cars , Channel inventory decreased month on month 12 Thousands of cars ;2021 year 1-7 Monthly vendor inventory decrease 22 Thousands of cars , Compared with previous years 1-7 Monthly inventory reduction is too large , Form a continuous 4 The characteristics of strong destocking in .

2021 year 1-7 month , Channel inventory is relatively reduced 78 Thousands of cars , a 2020 Year of 1-7 Monthly inventory 19 The level of 10000 vehicles has increased significantly . With the shortage of chips in the upstream in the short term , At the terminal sales level , There may be a further push to destock 、 Discount recovery and other phenomena appear , Some joint ventures lost a lot of orders and damaged morale .

 Take the cib :7 Retail of passenger cars in May 150 Thousands of cars Year-on-year decline in 6.2%

At the export level ,7 month , Passenger car exit of the Federation of passenger cars ( Including whole vehicle and CKD) 12.8 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 212%, New energy vehicles account for... Of total exports 20%. Among them, the export of independent brands reached 9 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 160%, Joint venture brand export 1.7 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 120%. Foreign brands tesla exit 2.4 The incremental contribution of 10000 vehicles is large , It shows the momentum of continuous improvement of the competitiveness of China's manufacturing system .

Retail level ,7 month , Luxury car retail 20 ten thousand , Year-on-year decline in 18%, Chain ratio 6 Month down 21%, But relative 2019 year 7 Monthly growth 7%. This shows that the demand for high-end replacement is still strong under the upgrading of consumption , It continues to maintain the characteristics of structural stability .

In terms of independent brands ,7 month , Independent brand retail 64 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 20%, Chain ratio 6 Monthly growth 5%, relative 2019 year 7 Monthly growth 23%. at present , Independent brand wholesale market share 45.4%, Share growth over the same period 12 percentage . And the domestic retail share is 42.5%, Year-on-year increase 9 percentage .

You can see , Independent brand head enterprises have strong industrial chain toughness 、 Effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage , Turn disadvantage into advantage , Significant increase in new energy , therefore BYD GAC AIAN changan The red flag 、 Chery and other brands showed high growth year-on-year .


Mainstream joint venture brands , German brands are still in the stage of adjustment and preparation due to the huge supply gap .7 In June, mainstream joint venture brand retail 67 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year decline in 19%, Chain ratio 6 Month down 7%, relative 2019 year 7 Month down 15%.7 month , Japanese brand retail share 23.0%, Year-on-year decline in 2.6 percentage . The retail market share of the American Department has reached 9.1%, Year-on-year decline in 0.5 percentage , Good performance .

New energy vehicle 7 Monthly retail 22.2 Thousands of cars Year-on-year increase 169.4%

In the field of new energy ,7 month , Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 22.2 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 169.4%, fell 3.2%.1-7 month , Retail of new energy vehicles 122.9 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 210.2%. It is strongly different from the trend of traditional fuel vehicles .7 month , Domestic retail penetration of new energy vehicles 14.8%,1-7 Monthly penetration rate 10.9%, a 2020 year 5.8% The permeability of has increased significantly .

 Take the cib :7 Retail of passenger cars in May 150 Thousands of cars Year-on-year decline in 6.2%

In terms of retail sales ,7 month , Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands 30.1%; Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars 8%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 2.5%. BYD is one of the enterprises with domestic retail sales exceeding 10000 vehicles 45,782 car 、 SAIC GM Wuling 32,800 car 、 GAC AIAN 10,604 car .

Wholesale level , The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 24.6 Thousands of cars , rose 5.1%, Year-on-year growth 202.9%.1-7 month , Wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles 133.9 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 227.4%. meanwhile ,7 In June, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers 16.3%,1-7 Monthly penetration rate 11.8%, a 2020 year 5.8% The permeability of has increased significantly .

In terms of wholesale sales ,7 month , Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands 28.4%; Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury cars 19.3%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 2.1%.

Don't look at it by category ,7 Wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in June 19.8 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 205%; Plug in hybrid motor 4.7 Thousands of cars , Year-on-year growth 196%, Proportion 19%.7 month , The sales volume of high-end electric vehicles increased strongly , The middle and low end trend is strong . among A00 First class wholesale sales 6.0 ten thousand , Share of pure electric 30%;A Class I electric vehicles account for the share of pure electric vehicles 29%, Rise from the bottom of the valley ;B Class electric vehicles up to 4.9 Thousands of cars , Chain ratio 6 The month was basically flat , Pure electric share 25%.7 BYD's sales volume of plug-in hybrid reached 25,391 car , rose 24%, Promote the growth of affordable plug-in hybrid into a new bright spot .

and 7 Wholesale of ordinary hybrid passenger vehicles in June 4.7 Thousands of cars , Last year 7 Monthly growth 41%, Chain ratio 6 A slight increase in the month 2%.

At the export level ,7 In June, the export of new energy vehicles showed explosive growth , Tesla China exports 24,347 car , SAIC's new energy export of passenger cars 4,407 car , BYD 781 car , Chery car 120 car , The export of new energy vehicles by other auto enterprises is also ready to go .

From the perspective of car companies ,7 month , The performance of large groups of new energy is differentiated , saic 、 GAC performed relatively well . BYD has a wholesale sales volume of more than 10000 vehicles 50,387 car 、 Tesla China 32,968 car 、 SAIC GM Wuling 27,347 car 、 SAIC passenger car 13,454 car 、 GAC AIAN 10,506 car . And ideal 、 Xiao peng 、 Wei to 、 joint 、 The sales volume of new forces such as Zero run is excellent year-on-year and month on month . The new energy vehicle retail of North South Volkswagen among the mainstream joint venture brands 10,707 car , Occupy the mainstream 57% share .BBA The pure electric vehicles of luxury car enterprises are fully mass produced , Product acceptance still needs to be greatly improved .

Car market sales may decline slightly in the second half of the year

at present , The national 2.9 100 million cars , Car ownership per thousand people 200 car , And the number of passenger cars for 1000 people is insufficient 170 car , The penetration rate of 100 households is insufficient 50%, Half the families don't have a car , Its potential is huge . Through years of user training , New energy vehicles have officially entered the stage of high-speed popularization of new energy . And specific to the present , The new car is the core incremental source , Except for high and low ends , In the future A level PHEV and EV The new car will drive A The primary new energy market has accelerated its growth .

Since the second quarter , The demand for car purchase is relatively strong , Promote the popularity of the terminal market . At present, the channel inventory is at a very low level , In the early stage, due to the epidemic 、 Delayed delivery of orders caused by insufficient production capacity and other factors , Will dilute 7 The impact of the traditional off-season of the market in May .

The anti-monopoly investigation on chips carried out by relevant state departments , It is conducive to improving the order of chip supply , Conducive to the delivery of accumulated retail orders , Also conducive to 8-10 Monthly plus wholesale increment of inventory cycle . If uncertain factors such as overseas epidemic situation improve , The production of automobile enterprises will strengthen significantly , The new product increment restrained in the early stage will also promote 8 The monthly car market is stronger .

For the car market , In the second half of the year, the car market may decline slightly on the basis of high base , The strong momentum of new energy in the car market will continue in the second half of the year , The newly listed traditional cars are gradually in large quantities , Or pull a part ICE Increase in the proportion of cars . After chip supply resumed in the second half of the year , The targets of various manufacturers in the field of cars will be greatly improved , In particular, the competition of mainstream joint venture brands will be more intense .

summary :

As the passenger Association analyzed , In recent years, the trend of traditional car sales is under great pressure , The differentiation of high-end and low-end is obvious , And luxury cars continue to strengthen , Entry level models are relatively difficult , It is also an obvious feature of the development of the auto market . at present , Steady increase in sales of new energy vehicles , It will also be a new normal for the development of the auto market in the future .

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