Wu Bohua: the two major changes have brought about an inflection point in the development of new energy vehicles, and there will be more than one trillion market space in 2025

Wechat automobile 2021-08-11 03:56:54 阅读数:108

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wu bohua changes brought inflection

“ Since last year, the new energy track has undergone essential changes , It mainly comes from the global consensus on future carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization .”


“ First, last year , It's not just China that will do this , Europe and the United States are also peaking towards carbon 、 Take a goal on the path of carbon neutralization . Second, the industry has changed from the previous policy driven to the current consumer goods driven , The changes of these two characteristics have brought the inflection point of the development of new energy vehicles .”


“ At first, everyone only gave 15% Penetration means that the world is 1500 Production and sales of 10000 new energy vehicles , I think 2025 There will be a big jump in the number of new energy vehicles in …… This space must be more than one trillion market space .”


“ As a very potential power generation link in the future , It is bound to enter a new growth track this year , Basically you can see 2025 The global new demand for photovoltaic will reach 400 Billion g More than tile ,2030 exceed 1000g watts . In this year, there are only 160g watts , therefore 25% The above compound growth rate can basically be seen .”


“ China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry is unique in the world , No other country can surpass , And this advantage will continue .”


“ In terms of investment direction , I think there are several directions , Like silicon wafers 、 The whole process of the battery pack , Some major leading companies . the second , Companies represented by inverters . Third , Some auxiliary materials similar to photovoltaic , image EVA Adhesive film 、EVA The particle 、 Glass these links . In addition, some more subdivided photovoltaic equipment 、 Household photovoltaic 、 Silicon material and other links .”


8 month 5 Japan , Deputy general manager of Changjiang Securities Research Institute 、 Wu Bohua, chief analyst of power equipment and new energy industry, talked with Huang Wei, deputy director of equity investment of Ping An fund , The above analysis and judgment on new energy are made .



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New energy track Essential changes have taken place


Since last year, the new energy track has undergone essential changes , Whether it is the new energy represented by photovoltaic , It is also a new energy vehicle represented by lithium battery , This change mainly comes from the global consensus on future carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization .


Last year, the state leaders proposed to be in 2030 Achieve carbon peak in ,2060 Achieve carbon neutrality in .


This goal requires us to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy structure , Because the emission of carbon dioxide at the power generation end is relatively large , We use clean and pollution-free solar energy at this end 、 Photovoltaic 、 Wind power energy to replace , To reduce carbon dioxide emissions .


On the car side, we use clean lithium batteries , Replace traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles , Reduce carbon dioxide emissions from car exhaust . Then there will be changes in the two fields of power generation end and power consumption end , It will provide good support for the realization of the double carbon goal .


that 2030 Years and 2060 Such an inflection point was formed in , Let's be more determined about the future , It also determines the medium and long-term space in the future .


Two major changes have brought about the inflection point of the development of new energy vehicles


In the past, people only thought that new energy was driven by national policies , Or just short-term industry changes , Not enough to support the future development space .


however
In the last year , It's not just China that will do this , Europe and the United States are also peaking towards carbon 、 Take a goal on the path of carbon neutralization .


Take new energy vehicles as an example , It has two characteristics . stay 2013 In, China took the lead in supporting the development of new energy vehicles in the world , Many policies have been introduced 、 Give a lot of subsidies . This is driven by China , So from 13 Year to now , The development of new energy vehicles in our country is very fast .


however 19 Since, Europe and the United States have also issued very strong policies to support new energy vehicles , US President Biden proposed 2030 In, the proportion of new energy vehicles was increased to 50%.


Apart from China , China, Europe and the United States work together to push this industry forward , I believe this space will be larger and more stable , From a single Chinese drive to a global drive , This is the first big change .


Second change , Judging from the sales structure of new energy vehicles in our country last year ,19 In, the proportion of individuals buying new energy vehicles was 50% about , But since last year, this figure has increased to 70% above , At the same time, this data is still improving this year , That means
New energy vehicles are not just the product of policy support , It has increasingly become a very mainstream choice for consumers when buying cars , This comes from the progress of our whole technology , It also comes from many car companies that are suitable for consumers to choose .


Therefore, this industry has changed from the previous policy driven to the current consumer goods driven , More and more popular with consumers , It has become a very benign industrial development trend . The changes of these two characteristics have brought the inflection point of the development of new energy vehicles .


Represented by China , We can see The global production and sales of new energy vehicles this year exceeded expectations . At the end of last year, we predicted that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China this year would be about 180 Ten thousand vehicles arrive 200 Thousands of cars . However, after continuous increase in the first half of this year , Now the domestic goal has been achieved 270 More than 10000 vehicles , At the same time, overseas also exceeded expectations .


Look at it this way , The short-term inflection point is very obvious , The medium and long-term trend is very certain .


Let's look around the world to see 2025 New energy vehicles in , At first, everyone only gave 15% Penetration means that the world is 1500 Production and sales of 10000 new energy vehicles , I think 2025 There will be a big jump in the number of new energy vehicles in , So we must make a big adjustment to this goal , The growth process of moving such low penetration consumer goods towards full popularization is immeasurable .


So this The market space must be above trillion level , In the future, electrification and intelligence in the automotive field must be a very important direction for industrial upgrading .


Photovoltaic will have 25% Above compound growth rate


the second , The turning point of new energy represented by photovoltaic is also very obvious this year .


First of all , At the beginning of this year, domestic photovoltaic projects do not need subsidies , It will enter the stage of full autonomy and parity . China can support the development of photovoltaic power generation without subsidies , It will have a better income . If China can achieve such a parity stage , So other overseas countries , Because of its high electricity cost, it entered the parity stage very early .


second , Previously by Europe 、 China 、 The United States 、 Japan driven market , Now it begins to spread around the world , So now more than g Installed countries at watt level , It has exceeded since this year 20 Multiple , This potential will be greater 、 Stability will also be higher , Development towards parity 、 At the same time, it is developing globally .


At the same time, the state has also issued many policies , So we see
As a very potential power generation link in the future , It is bound to enter a new growth track this year , Basically you can see 2025 The global new demand for photovoltaic will reach 400 Billion g More than tile ,2030 exceed 1000g watts . In this year, there are only 160g watts , therefore 25% The above compound growth rate can basically be seen .


Whether electric vehicles or photovoltaic , In my submission 2021 Years are an important turning point , Not only did we determine the medium - and long-term direction last year , It also means that the future growth rate of the industry can be predicted optimistically from this year , Then there will naturally be many investment opportunities .


The global advantages of China's PV will continue , Watch the four tracks


China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry is unique in the world , No other country can surpass , And this advantage will continue , Therefore, all links of photovoltaic industry chain , Basically, China leads the world .


In terms of investment direction , In terms of domain, I think there are several directions , Like silicon wafers 、 The whole process of the battery pack ,
Some major leading companies . Like an integrated company , It may have both silicon wafers , And a battery 、 Components , So it is a leading company that can represent the whole photovoltaic industry chain , This is a track .


the second ,
Companies represented by inverters , It has a high market share in the domestic market , At the same time, we will continue to expand market space overseas , To improve its permeability , So this is also a track with good growth .


Third ,
Some auxiliary materials similar to photovoltaic , image EVA Adhesive film 、EVA The particle 、 These links of glass will also show strong competitiveness with the continuous compound growth of the whole industry .


In addition, some more subdivided photovoltaic equipment 、 Household photovoltaic 、 Silicon material and other links , It has very strong global leading competitiveness .


From the perspective of investment scheme , The whole industry chain has good opportunities , Of course, this is due to the continuous increase in the proportion of photovoltaic power generation . We will give the photovoltaic industry 25 The above compound growth rate , Then there are good opportunities for all such subdivision links and track matching links .


Market risk , Invest carefully , This article does not constitute investment advice .

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