They all say that the ideal is broken, but does Li want to care?

Wechat automobile 2021-08-12 14:44:27 阅读数:321

say ideal broken li want



Ideals are almost on one's own , The technical route of adding programs has been revived in China .

The full text 5484 word , About reading 11 minute

writing | Chen Junyi

edit | Gu Yan

Ideal car once had two judgments contrary to the mainstream of the industry : For a long time , Charging is not convenient , High level automatic driving is also difficult to achieve .

Based on these two judgments , When the streets are full of pure trams , Ideal is the loneliest augmenter of technical routes ; When car companies are making efforts to drive automatically , The ideal is not warm on automatic driving , Xiaopeng and Wei took the lead .

But in the capital markets , Ideal is not slow , Following Xiaopeng's return to Hong Kong for dual listing , It officially landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today .

Public offering stage , Ideal car -W a 5.5 Double subscription . But yesterday's dark market broke , Closing quotation of dark trading 115.1 The Hong Kong dollar , More attractive share price 118 Hong Kong dollar down 2.46%, Excluding the handling fee, the investor loses every hand 290 The Hong Kong dollar . As of press time , Ideal car -W newspaper 117.7 The Hong Kong dollar , The latest total market value slightly exceeds 2400 Million Hong Kong dollars .

Latest data , Ideal 7 Monthly delivery 8589 The car is ideal ONE, For the first time, the delivery volume in a single month exceeds 8000 car , Year-on-year growth 251.3%, rose 11.4%, stay “ Wei Xiaoli ” No. 1 in . According to this month on month growth rate , It will take another two months to sell more than ten thousand a month , Founder Li Xiang also set himself 9 The goal of selling more than 10000 yuan a month .

Despite the encouraging growth in sales , However, the ideal Hong Kong stocks did not perform well on the first day of listing . however , Blow over “ Don't speculate in stocks , Try to get yourself to issue shares ” Niu's Li wants to , Enjoy the happiness of entrepreneurship and listing , It's not comparable to making money in stocks .


Car making , It costs money

What is the threshold for building a car ? The answer given by Li Bin, founder of Weilai, is 200 One hundred million yuan .

According to SkyEye data , from 2015 Initial financing in 2017 Mass production models at the end of the year ES8 Officially listed , Wei to 5 This round of financing is equivalent to about RMB 145 One hundred million yuan ; from 2015 year 4 The first round of financing will arrive at 2018 The first model at the end of the year G3 Officially listed , Xiaopeng's accumulated financing amount also exceeded 100 RMB ; Weima Cong 2016 The first round of financing began in , To 2018 year 4 Monthly mass production vehicles EX5 Listing room , The amount of financing disclosed amounted to 20 Billion dollars ( There are four rounds of financing with undisclosed amounts ), About RMB 141 One hundred million yuan .

Only consider disclosing the amount of financing , These three new forces 100 The financing of more than 100 million yuan has only maintained 3 About years ago , Not counting the loss, every month “ Burn up ” exceed 3 One hundred million yuan . Even after the first car is mass produced , It still needs continuous financing until it goes public . So it seems , What Li Bin said 200 The threshold of 100 million yuan to build a car , It is indeed a very realistic standard .

And the ideal starts from 2015 Obtained Mingshi capital in 1000 $10000 Angel round investment , To 2019 year 4 Ideal for monthly mass production ONE The listing opens the reservation ( The delivery time is the fourth quarter ), The financing amount is less than RMB 50 One hundred million yuan . Compared with the above three new forces, before the mass production vehicles were launched 100 More than 100 million yuan of financing , It can be said that the capital utilization efficiency of the ideal car is more than twice .


Financing at the latest , Mass production is the latest , But the ideal delivery is moving very fast . from 2019 year 12 The first car will be delivered to 2020 year 6 month , It was delivered in half a year 1 Ten thousand ideal ONE, It is the fastest in Wei Xiaoli . But the gap has not widened , from 0 To 1 ten thousand , Wei to ES8 Also only 7 Months , Xiao peng G3 It was used 8 Months .

Even when the new forces of car building are losing money , Ideals are also more cautious and convergent than others .

2020 year , Ideal loss 1.51 One hundred million yuan , Wei Lai 、 The losses of Xiaopeng are 53.04 Million dollars 29.92 One hundred million yuan .2021 First quarter of 2009 , Ideal loss 3.6 One hundred million yuan , Wei Lai 、 The losses of Xiaopeng are 48.75 Million dollars 7.86 One hundred million yuan . Losing less money means making money .

from 2019 Successful mass production in the fourth quarter of 2014 is ideal ONE To 2021 year 7 End of month , The ideal has been delivered 7.2 Ten thousand ideal ONE. Even though 2020 The year as a whole has not been profitable , but 2020 The gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 17.5%, The annual gross profit margin is 16.4%, contrast 2020 New year is coming 11.5%、 Xiao peng 4.6% The gross profit margin , The ideal is obviously ahead .

But building cars , There's too much to spend .

stay 2020 year Q4 And the annual earnings call , Ideal car co-founder and CFO Li Tie said ,2020 year 11 The R & D cost of 100 million yuan is mainly used as 2022 Early R & D investment of new models in ,2021 The annual ideal vehicle R & D cost will further increase to at least 30 One hundred million yuan , future 3 year , R & D expenses will reach... Per year 60 One hundred million yuan , It is estimated that more than half of the cost will be used for the research and development of automatic driving .

According to the rhythm of pre research two years in advance of the ideal new model ,2021 year 30 Half of the R & D investment of 100 million yuan is used for automatic driving , You have to set aside half for 2023 R & D investment of new models in , That's all 15 Billion yuan .

According to the prospectus , In the next two years, it is ideal to build three vehicle platforms and launch five new products , this It may also swallow more than 10 billion R & D expenses . Even more efficient use of funds 、 Dubbed “ Pick factory ” The ideal of , It's going to be hard .

Dual listing of Hong Kong stocks , I have to do it for you .


Excitement and stability in autonomous driving exploration

New energy vehicles need heavy capital investment , In order to maintain a position in the increasingly competitive track .

By 2020 year 12 month 31 Day and 2021 year 3 month 31 Japan , Ideal cash and cash equivalents 、 Restricted cash 、 The total amount of time deposits and short-term investments are 299 One hundred million yuan (46 Billion dollars ) And 304 One hundred million yuan (46 Billion dollars ). The dual listing of Hong Kong stocks , With 118 The listing price calculation of Hong Kong dollars , You can raise up to 118 Million Hong Kong dollars .

Under continuous capital investment , The ideal also constantly has new actions .

2021 At the Spring Conference , Ideal except to launch 2021 The ideal ONE, The ideal advanced assisted driving system has also been introduced AD, It will be announced in the third quarter OTA Way to 2021 User push , In the original L2 On the basis of level auxiliary driving , Realization NOA Navigation driving function .

Li wants to admit when communicating with the media :“ On autopilot , Relative to Tesla 、 Xiao Peng, we have to make up lessons .” After all, the ideal car is selling 、 When the gross profit is better than Xiaopeng , Compared with the market value, Xiaopeng still loses a little , I'm afraid it's backward in the automatic driving technology that represents the future , Is an important reason .

The biggest reason for falling behind is not lack of money , It is before The ideal is not active enough in automatic driving , More stable research and development 、 No hurry, no impatience .

Different from Xiaopeng's initial “ The first car for young people ” To “ Better understand China's smart cars ” The positioning of , Ideals emphasize themselves more “ Daddy's car ”、 Luxury medium and large SUV、 Two children and three children 、 There are labels and positioning of multiple car owners at home . The data Li wants to release shows that , Close to 80% ideal ONE There are multiple cars in the user's home , And many users are BBA Even Bugatti owners .

by comparison , The label of automatic driving doesn't seem to get enough attention . But from 2020 From the second half of , The ideal is also changing the attitude towards automatic driving .

This year, 4 month 20 Japan , Li wants to announce on his microblog : The auxiliary driving and automatic driving of all models of the ideal car are completely standard , Including software 、 Data services 、 Map service 、 Computing hardware 、 Sensors, etc , No separate charge .


Picture source : Microblogging

All standard configurations do not need to be optional 、 No separate charge —— In a one-time buyout 、 Monthly subscription fee 、 It is included in the three sales modes of automatic driving function at the price of the whole vehicle , The ideal choice is the last .

And Tesla's FSD System , The one-time purchase price in the United States is 1 Thousands of dollars , The domestic price is 6.4 Ten thousand yuan ; At the same time, Tesla also launched FSD A subscription service , Ordinary vehicles 199 dollar / month , I bought an enhanced version of automatic driving assistance (EAP) Of 99 dollar / month .

Weilai NIOPilot( Autopilot system ) The prices of selected package and full package are respectively 1.5 Million and $ 3.9 Ten thousand yuan , Consumers can also pay monthly 680 Monthly subscription by Yuan ADaaS( Autopilot service ,AD as a Service).

The price of Xiaopeng's auto driving software package is 3.6 Ten thousand yuan , If you buy Xiaopeng at the same time P7 And autopilot software , You can enjoy 2 A preferential price of 10000 yuan . meanwhile , Xiaopeng is also considering introducing subscription payment mode .

But whether it's a one-time buyout or a monthly subscription , At present, it is still difficult for most Chinese consumers to accept . Guotai Junan estimated through investigation , By 2020 end of the year , tesla FSD Permeability is 24.57%. But CITIC Securities pointed out , tesla FSD The penetration rate in China is low , have only 1%-2% Of users chose FSD System .

In terms of domestic payment rate, Xiao Peng performs better . In the latest financial report , Xiao Peng confirmed for the first time XPILOT Software revenue , data display 2020 Its software revenue in 5000 Ten thousand yuan , Its software revenue in the first quarter of this year 3000 Ten thousand yuan , As of the end of the first quarter XPILOT 3.0 The cumulative payment rate reached about 25%. If this number can be further improved , The gross profit margin far exceeds the software revenue from vehicle sales, and will become an important profit point for Xiaopeng .

Compared with Wei Lai 、 Xiao peng 、 tesla , Ideal finally chose a more radical new business model .

Ideal auto driving product manager said in an interview with the media , Aim for fully automatic driving , There is also a lack of data for real users to use the autopilot system , These data can help the system iterate faster .

This also reflects the view that the ideal has always been : The goal of fully automatic driving in the medium and long term is still difficult to achieve , In that case , It's better to configure all low-level automatic driving functions as standard , Accumulate more available data for the future .

In fact, from GAC 、 It can also be seen from the planning of FAW and other mainstream automobile enterprises ,L4 Level intelligent driving is difficult in 5-10 It's going to be mainstream this year ,L5 High level automatic driving should 10 Years and even 20 It will be years before . At present, Tesla's automatic driving level , In essence, it is also in L3 and L4 Between levels .

Therefore, we are eager to invest a lot of money in the research and development of high-level automatic driving , It is more likely to let enterprises fall into a capital black hole early . It is ideal to concentrate on low-level automatic driving in the initial stage , Enter as a follower after the industrial chain and market are mature enough , Instead, it saves a lot of resources , Improve the efficiency of capital utilization .

Autonomous driving requires long-term and continuous research and development , In the short term, money is difficult to hit the effect , It will also make the earnings data look bad .

Results show that , Ideal total revenue in the first quarter of this year 35.8 One hundred million yuan , fell 13.8%; The net profit realized for the first time in the last quarter became positive , It also becomes a net loss 3.6 One hundred million yuan . This is different from the new models 、 The research and development investment of automatic driving and the increase of marketing expenses have a great relationship .

As report goes , The number of ideal autopilot teams in the second quarter has exceeded 300 people . Ideal CTO Wang Kai also said , By the end of this year , Will expand the team to 600 More than one .

Li Xiang once said , Hope that in 2025 in , You can get a ticket to the automatic driving track ; To 2035 year , Make the ideal car the world's largest self driving operator .

“ Maximum ” This goal , At present, it seems too grand . But one thing is for sure , Financing from the listing of Hong Kong stocks , The ideal future will develop faster .


No longer “ One model hits the world ”

Has been the ideal of playing the world with a single model ,2023 Since, it is planned to launch at least two new cars every year , involve SUV、 More product lines for cars , Prices are further down and up .

The prospectus shows ,2023 Ideal will launch a pure electric vehicle . meanwhile , The ideal doesn't want to completely abandon the incremental program , Because in the published plan , In the future, incremental models and pure electric vehicle models will keep pace .


Picture source : Ideal prospectus

But more combinations can really “ Have more children and fight ” Do you ? Consumers who prefer the endurance advantage of the ideal program , How strong the desire to buy ?

Billion euro EqualOcean Wu Dong, research director of the automotive division, believes that , Ideal current product 、 Single model ,“ One model hits the world ” It is a passive choice under the shortage of resources ; After enriching the product matrix , The customer circle will be further expanded ,SUV、 Multiple product lines such as cars will also enable each other .

at present , When the acceptance of new energy vehicles has been very high , Regular customers can accept pure trams as well . Even if there are some users who are particularly concerned about mileage , There will also be more users who accept pure trams , Thus offsetting the loss of some users .

in other words , In fact, the ideal is to plan to launch pure electric models only when there is basically no life anxiety of pure electric models , Just right at the time node , The rhythm is very accurate .

In store sales , The ideal efficiency is also better than that of peers .

By the end of the first quarter of this year , Ideal to have 65 Retail outlets ,135 A service center , Cover 49 Cities ; As of the end of the second quarter of this year , Retail stores grew to 97 home ; It is expected that offline stores will expand to 200 home . Wei Lai 2020 Years ago 226 stores ,2021 The total number of stores will reach 366 home .

Although the number of ideal stores is small , But in 2020 year 12 In January, the average delivery per store exceeded 100 Vehicles , It is said to be the average of its peers 2 times .

But how to expand stores at the same time , Continue to maintain high store delivery , It is also testing the ideal operation team .

According to ideal co-founder Shen Yanan , The ideal does not rule out finding more flexible ways of cooperation from the aspects of clues and venues , But the direct service to customers must be direct . in other words , Ideally, we should explore more offline retail models outside of direct sales , If the franchisee leaves the site 、 Ideal people 、 Cooperation mode of income sharing .

Deng ya, a senior industry person, told yiou EqualOcean, Ideally, there are not too many restrictions on the store , The mode of cooperation is flexible , Efficiency is correspondingly higher , And ideal ONE It is also attractive to specific users .

Deng Ya thinks , Ideal ONE It is a very successful product , Success comes from its excellent product definition 、 The rapid capture of user needs and the convenience of adding program technology in energy replenishment and endurance . But the ideal short board is also obvious , Different from automatic driving technology , The technical barrier of incremental program is not high , Traditional car companies are easy to copy their homework , Like Cyrus 、 Lan Tu and others have launched additional program models .

A number of people in the industry have expressed their gratitude to billion euros EqualOcean It expresses the view that incremental programming technology is actually an outdated technology . But the ideal is to rely on incremental programming technology, which may be eliminated in a few years , Meet the needs of specific consumers . This year, 1-7 month , The ideal car has been sold 38743 The car is ideal ONE, In new energy SUV The domestic sales volume of the subdivided track is the first .

Technology that everyone doesn't use , Isn't it really worth the investment ? Ideal has proved with its own sales , not necessarily .


At the end

Ideals are almost on one's own , The technical route of adding programs has been revived in China , His courage is indeed admirable . Even if you look at the world , Car companies that can successfully break through by adding program technology , It seems that there is only one ideal family .

But from a business perspective , Add program technology route as a transition technology , It is generally recognized that it will be replaced by pure electric in the medium and short term . How to deal with the contradiction between short-term practicality and medium and long-term elimination ?

This problem , Wang Xing, Li Xiang's second largest shareholder, must have considered .

Wang Xing is a true love for his ideal , It is an ideal platform for many times in meals and various public occasions , Also had an open relationship with the ideal 、 Undisclosed technical cooperation .2018 year 7 month , Meituan displays unmanned delivery vehicles cooperating with Neolithic tools , It was launched at the beginning of the establishment of the ideal SEV It's a car model .

The prospectus shows , Ideal car chairman and CEO Li wants to own 23.79%, Voting rights may be exercised up to 75.74%; US holdings 13.23%, The right to vote is 4.21%, Wang Xing's own shares 6.76%, Right to vote 2.15%. in other words , Wang Xing and meituan are in the ideal IPO Previously passed the cumulative test 55 Billion yuan investment , Have an ideal 19.99% Equity and 6.36% Right to vote .

With the current ideal car -W super 2400 Market value of HK $billion , The market value of Wang Xing's shares exceeds 480 Million Hong Kong dollars , Investment income is close to 8 times .

Moreover, the relationship between meituan and ideal is not only the relationship between investment and invested , They also hope to establish a deeper industrial chain relationship in technology and Commerce .

Meituan takeout alone has about 400 Millions of riders ,2020 In, the cost of meituan take out riders was 486.92 One hundred million yuan ; Recently, the State Administration of market supervision and other seven departments issued guidance , It is expected that meituan's expenditure on paying social security for riders will exceed 100 One hundred million yuan . The development and application of lower cost unmanned distribution vehicles has been in the planning of meituan , Will Wang Xing consider cooperating with the ideal ?

Shout out at the new energy track “2030 received 25% Above global market share 、2035 In, it became the world's largest automatic driving operator ” The ideal of , As in the travel market “ Trillions ” Ambitious Wang Xing , There will soon be sparks of new types of business cooperation . Maybe one day at the meituan “ spot ” An ideal car , From renting a car to buying a car 、 Car repair , Enjoy the one-stop service far beyond other platforms .

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