Ask again about the "core" of automobile: what is the impact of the lower than expected production capacity of the world's largest automobile chip manufacturer?

Wechat automobile 2021-08-12 19:17:13 阅读数:522

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ask core automobile impact lower

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In recent days, , Infineon, the world's largest automotive semiconductor supplier, released its third quarter results , Compared with the previous quarter , Revenue growth is only 1%. The occurrence of this situation , It is largely due to the failure to restore the production capacity of two factories in Texas and Malacca, Malaysia . according to Strategy Analytics The latest data , 2020 Infineon occupied the global automotive semiconductor market 13.2% share . An automotive semiconductor enterprise with such a large market share , The setback of its capacity recovery is bound to affect the whole automotive chip market .


Since the beginning of this year ,“ Core missing ” Is the most difficult problem in the whole automobile industry . From the initial chip price rise caused by capacity constraints , To Ford 、 Toyota 、 Chrysler and other auto companies adjust their auto production to cope with the shortage of chips , Then the chip manufacturer starts the self built production line 、 Automobile manufacturers' entry chip manufacturing . Whether Infineon's capacity recovery is frustrated , Or a series of measures taken by the whole automobile industry , All show that the car core shortage continues .


Hoarding is easy to trap “ Prisoner's dilemma ”


Automotive chips mainly include three categories :MCU( Micro control unit , Also known as function chip )、 Power semiconductor 、 sensor . Teng ranxiang, general manager of IC industry research center of CCID Consulting Co., Ltd 《 China electronic news 》 Reporter pointed out , MCU、 Power devices (MOSFET、IGBT)、 Analog chips (AC-DC、DC-DC) And so on . Lu Wenliang, a distinguished researcher in the automotive industry of the industrial science and technology innovation center of the Academy of science and technology strategy consulting and research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, is accepting 《 China electronic news 》 The reporter said in an interview , Microprocessor (MCU) And electronic control unit (ECU) It is the most scarce type of automotive chip at this stage .


According to song Changgeng, director of xinmou research , The production of an ordinary fuel vehicle often needs 20~50 star MCU, New energy vehicles require about 100~200 star MCU chip . because MCU Chip is in great demand and belongs to the core type of automobile chip , Higher production requirements , In addition, it is difficult to replace , At this stage, the market gap is the largest .


“ suffer ‘ Core missing ’ Impact of market situation , Competition among major car manufacturers MCU, Leading to the needs of many auto manufacturers MCU Mismatched .” Song Changgeng told me 《 China electronic news 》 The reporter , The car factory stepped up chip stocking after sensing the shortage of chip stock , Make the circulation in the market MCU The number dropped sharply , However, it is also difficult for a single car factory to ensure the production required MCU Chips are in stock ,“ You can't go offline without a chip ”, This is aggravated in disguise MCU Insufficient chip supply . Current MCU Price vs 2019 Compared to , It has gone up 5~20 times .


Fear of reducing automobile production 700 Thousands of cars


The reporter learned through the interview , Since this year, 3 Since the month ,MCU、 Power management IC、 simulation IC The lead time of chips is generally 20 More than weeks . NXP 、 Risa Electronics 、 The delivery time of Italian French semiconductor is about 24~52 Zhou . For simulation IC for , TI 、 Ying Feiling 、 The supply cycle of STMicroelectronics is 16~30 Zhou . It means , If car manufacturers do not want to affect the normal production of cars , It is often necessary to book the chip about half a year in advance , Otherwise, it may be forced to stop production due to lack of core . since 3 Month so far , After nearly half a year of capacity adjustment , The delivery time of automobile chips shows no sign of shortening . contrary , Including power management 、 Simulators 、 The delivery time of passive components and other types of chip products has been extended .


It is reported that , At present, the gap of power semiconductor chips is still expanding , The delivery cycle of some products is even close to one and a half years .IC Real time data display of distribution platform, MAOZe electronics and other websites , Many products of Anson semiconductor are out of stock , The delivery cycle of out of stock products is up to 69 Zhou . And in the 2019 Years ago , Automotive chips are completely in the buyer's market , Automobile manufacturers do not need to consider the problem of ordering chips in advance . 

 

The core shortage will continue until the middle of next year, affected by the shortage of automobile chip production , Major automobile manufacturers have suffered from the impact to varying degrees . according to 7 Month to date news , The world's top auto manufacturers still reduce production or even stop production due to insufficient chip supply to varying degrees . As the world's largest automobile brand, Toyota ,8 month 2 solstice 6 Japan , Some production lines of Toyota Takaoka factory, located in Toyota City, Aichi, Japan, are discontinued 5 God ; This month, , FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota also suspended some production lines due to chip shortage . This month, 3 Japan , General Motors closed several factories in North America because of a shortage of chips , Discontinued high profit pickup truck models , Chevrolet SILVERADO、GMC SIERRA The production of chips has also been affected by the shortage of chips . 


according to 7 month 29 Japan Auto Forecast Solutions(AFS) data , Affected by the national core shortage , China auto factory 7 The month decreased by about 355000 Planned output of vehicles .AFS It is estimated that , So far , Chip shortage has led to a reduction in global car production 560 Thousands of cars , It is expected that this figure will climb to 690 Thousands of cars . Bloomberg pointed out in the article , The uncertainty caused by the persistent shortage of chips will cost carmakers... This year 1100 Billion dollars in sales . Lu Wenliang thinks , Almost all brands will be affected by the shortage of chips , If the chip is insufficient , Manufacturers will be based on market sales 、 Product reserve reduces production speed .


by comparison , The core shortage of new energy vehicles is more serious . according to Sievers data , Proportion of semiconductors in electric vehicles ( Including hybrid vehicles ) Twice as much as traditional fuel vehicles . Battery of electric vehicle 、 Motor and monitoring system , New entertainment 、 Both safety and driving assistance functions require semiconductors . thus , The shortage of chips may delay the transformation of major brand cars to electric vehicles .


In the face of such market situation , All market players are not optimistic about the mitigation of the contradiction between supply and demand of automotive chips . CEO of Renesas Hidetoshi Shibata It is estimated that , The supply and demand situation will not begin to ease until the middle of next year . Infineon CEO Reinhard · Poulos says , The recovery of the global auto market is seriously constrained by supply constraints , It will take time for the market to regain the balance between supply and demand , Judging by the current situation , This situation will certainly continue until 2022 year . President of Intel Pat Gelsinger stay 7 month 22 At the financial report conference call on April , The global chip shortage will continue for another year or two . NXP enterprise representative also said , The imbalance between supply and demand of automotive chips will continue until the middle of next year .


Taken together , The global shortage of automotive chips is expected to continue until 2022 Second quarter .


Limited capacity increment of chip manufacturers


The lack of core in this round of automobile largely continues the whole industry since the second half of last year “ Core missing ”: in the first place , Influenced by COVID-19 , The capacity of major chip manufacturers is limited ; both , Home office makes PC Rising demand for consumer electronics , To some extent, it has occupied the production capacity of automobile chips ; The three ,2020 year , Car demand rebounded ; Four ,2019 Years ago , Automobile manufacturers lack chip stock awareness , This makes it possible to 2020 Insufficient chip capacity in 、 In case of extended delivery period , Auto manufacturers can not realize timely replenishment of chip inventory , This leads to a tight supply and demand of automotive chips .


To ease “ Core missing ”, The industry has turned its attention to the top chip manufacturers in the world , We hope to make up for the market demand gap by increasing production capacity .Strategy Analytics data display , Ying Feiling 、 NXP 、 Risa Electronics 、 Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics are the top five auto chip manufacturers in the world , Five enterprises in 2020 In, it occupied nearly 100% of the automotive semiconductor market 49% Share .


Infineon, the world's largest supplier of automotive power devices, said , Current inventory has reached an all-time low . According to Infineon 8 month 6 Yesterday's 2021 The third quarter of the fiscal year ( By 2021 year 6 month 30 Japan ) results , Revenue growth in the third quarter was only 5% higher than that in the second quarter 1%. This is because the manufacturer of Infineon in Texas has been unable to restore its previous production level after the ice storm ; both , Influenced by COVID-19 , Infineon's seal testing plant in Malacca, Malaysia, was forced to shut down , And in Malaysia Kulim Novel coronavirus pneumonia was found in some of the workers in the wafer fabrication plant. , This makes Infineon's capacity recovery impaired here . Under the influence of many factors , Infineon automotive semiconductors and power 、 The productivity of the two sensor plates has been greatly impacted .


CEO of Italian French semiconductor Jean-Marc Chery call , Italian French semiconductor can only meet this year 70% Customer needs . meanwhile , NXP, the world's largest supplier of automotive chips, also said , Affected by chip shortage , Chip dealer inventory is currently at an all-time low .


In the case of limited capacity increment of automobile chip manufacturers , The industry will place its hopes on the OEM . As the world's largest chip foundry , TSMC achieved auto sales in the first half of this year MCU The output of chips increased year-on-year 30%, The annual growth is expected to reach 60%. During the month , TSMC signed to 2022 Multiple contracts in , The content is to improve production capacity 、 Priority is given to the production of automotive chips , Help alleviate the global shortage of automotive chips . stay 7 Shareholders' conference call in June , TSMC also said that the company currently gives priority to the production of automotive chips . According to a source , United Microelectronics and other Taiwan OEM factories will also follow TSMC's practice , Priority is given to automotive chip customers without wafer factory .


However , In Song Changgeng's opinion , The extent to which TSMC's declared capacity tilt will work remains to be seen :“ First , How many car chips does the chip manufacturer hand over to TSMC , This is unknown . The amount of car chips is not large , Therefore, chip manufacturers have the ability to squeeze out production capacity to meet the demand for automotive chips .” Besides , In case of current core shortage , The factory production line is in full load operation , It is not easy to increase automobile production capacity , If capacity tilt is to have an impact ,“ It also takes at least three months or more to reflect ”.


After the lack of core in automobile has become the focus of the whole industry , The expansion of the production line of chip manufacturers also came out on the network . Toshiba this year 3 In June, it announced the establishment of a new power semiconductor production line at a factory in Ishikawa Prefecture, central Japan , For the production of automotive power semiconductors ; Fuji Electric this year 7 Month announced , stay 2021 Second half of fiscal year ( namely 2021 year 10 In the 2022 year 3 month ) period , A new factory will be set up in Aomori Prefecture, Japan 8 Inch wafer line , Focus on the production of automotive power semiconductors . These seem to lack core for cars “ An antidote against the disease ” Action , In fact, it can't alleviate the current car “ Core missing ” present situation .


Teng ran described it as “ Far hydrolyze but not near thirst ”:“ Self built production line of chip manufacturing enterprises , Including production line planning 、 Plant construction 、 Equipment ordering 、 Climbing capacity 、 Stable shipment and other links , From production line planning to final shipment, at least 12~18 months .” Even if the production line is expanded on the basis of the existing plant , It is also impossible to realize the supply of automotive chips in the short term . Song Changgeng believes , Those who are expanding the plant at this stage 、 Enterprises building additional production lines , More out of the company's strategic considerations , Instead of solving the current core shortage problem .


Song Changgeng believes , To increase chip production , The new plant can not solve the problem of chip shortage in the short term , Or should we improve the output efficiency of the existing production line . Song Changgeng cited SMIC as an example , The enterprise 2021 The results of the second quarter of , Its capacity utilization reaches 100.4%, Realization 174.52 Ten thousand pieces 8 Inch equivalent wafer delivery .“ Capacity is a calculated value , If the management efficiency of the enterprise is high 、 High efficiency of plant equipment , Then the final production capacity will be higher than the theoretical value . Ying Feiling 、 STMicroelectronics has the ability to improve its capacity utilization 20% Of .”


The R & D process of domestic vehicle specification chip is accelerated


In addition to increasing production capacity , Unblocking supply and demand channels is also the key to alleviate the current core shortage problem .8 month 3 Japan , State Administration of market supervision releases news , Investigate the automobile chip distribution enterprises suspected of driving up prices , And will strengthen supervision and law enforcement , Strictly investigate and deal with hoarding 、 Bid up prices and other illegal acts .“ Lack of core is not only a problem of production capacity , And the imbalance between supply and demand 、 Poor channels .” Lu Wenliang is accepting 《 China electronic news 》 The reporter said in an interview ,“ The state cracked down on dealers' hoarding , Mainly to solve the problem of poor channels .”


We should alleviate the problem of core shortage in state-owned car factories , Looking for domestic automotive chips is also an idea . Around the world 500 Billion in the automotive chip market , China only accounts for 4.5%, Car gauge level MCU Insufficient localization rate of chips 5%. The global shortage of automotive chips has accelerated the R & D process of domestic manufacturers' vehicle specification chips .


7 month 16 Japan , stay 2021 China integrated circuit design Innovation Conference and IC At the Automotive Electronics Forum of the same period of the Application Expo , Shanghai Xinwang Microelectronics Co., Ltd FAE Director Lu Hengyang said , Xinwang latest 32 Bit car MCU product CF32A156 R & D has been completed , It's about to enter the stage of mass production . Horizon, a domestic automotive intelligent chip technology enterprise, has also officially released a new generation of vehicle specification products recently —— Journey 5, Already with SAIC 、 The Great Wall 、 jianghuai 、 Ideal 、 changan 、 BYD 、 Nezha and other car companies reached the intention of starting mass production cooperation .


“ The shortage of automotive chips gives domestic chip manufacturers the opportunity to enter the verification of vehicle manufacturers ”, Teng ran mentioned this . But there is still a long way to go for domestic chips to really enter the production line .“ The verification cycle of vehicle specification chip is relatively long ”, Lu Wenliang said ,“ It hasn't passed the vehicle regulation verification yet , There is no way to supply in the short term .”


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