Building a car is a utopia

Wechat automobile 2021-08-31 03:04:50 阅读数:510

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2021/08/25

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Go to the sea to build a car , It may be the road that cannot be bypassed by the transformation of all walks of life at present .

Reporter Du Yuxin

Editor in charge: Xu Jinkai

Editor Zhu Jinbin


2021 year , At the launch of each new brand , Every new car manufacturer recognizes the value of this new track , Some put out hundreds of billions of funds to show their determination , Even bet on your future and reputation , Some bet on the last stage of their career , by XX Fight for cars .


Yu Xiaomi , Car making is not only the transformation and upgrading of enterprises , It is also a step forward to industry , The virtual combination of the Internet and the reality of the automobile industry , At least the direction is right ; Yu Hengda , This is the luck and blessing of the auto industry , Only the more players , The market will be bigger , Just like now, the cost performance of automobile products is getting higher and higher , Competition between , Consumers will always benefit .


Change makes sense , The general rule is long , Undeniable? , Every participant on this track , Will be the power to promote the transformation of China's auto industry , Chinese cars have passed “ Market for Technology ” The age of innocence , use 30 Over the years, we have completed the historical road of foreign brands for decades and hundreds of years , Even at present, it can be on an equal footing with foreign capital in technology .


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But followers are always followers , New rules and modes must be opened , Smart electric vehicles are tuyeres .


Standing at the new intelligent electric vehicle , This is the Chinese car to prove itself 、 The key battle to establish a competitive advantage on the new track , On the road of software defined cars , In the new construction of the smart car world , Traditional car companies and technology companies , Build a broader Chinese brand , Strive to gain a new voice on the new track , Push the automotive world towards a new order , It is also destined to be rich and wonderful .


But on this crowded track , Only a handful of people can get on the podium . After the carnival, there will be endless loneliness , This is almost an eternal law for thousands of years , And this scene , Whether in the 21 The car making movement at the beginning of the century , Or in the new forces building cars in the past few years , Even mobile phones and other industries , All show incisively and vividly .


As most people can see 90% The probability of failure , And the national strategy drives capital , Or industry trends cooperate with dreams , Pushing a group of people competing for the rest 10% The opportunity of . Baidu 、 millet 、 skyworth 、 sound of dripping water 、360、 Huawei 、 Apple and other Internet companies , There are even more companies that are ready to build cars without words , It will make the track lively .


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But every player knows , There are not many lucky people at the end of this marathon , Most of them can only become runners , Some even fall before the starting gun , But those who are already in the spotlight 、 Already very successful business elites , When facing a tempting industry with confidence , Who will admit that they can't and fail ?


Sounds a little pathetic , It may even smell like gambling , But that's the reality , There are some phenomena , It was a foregone conclusion from the beginning . Many players can't see the finish line , Can't reach the other side of victory , All grand ideas are destroyed , The Republic became a utopia , And the price behind it , Who should pay the bill ?


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The threshold ? There is no the !


Actually 2020 In, it has sounded an alarm to the new forces of car making , Thanks to its 、 Sai Lin 、 future 、 Bo shire 、 Singularity, etc , Those who used to shine at the International Auto Show 、 Bright new power car companies have fallen on the way forward , And those past goals , Grand plans and logical ideas , Finally defeated by reality .


Yes , The road to building a car is not easy , Outside the circle , Almost many people say so , Numerous cases have also confirmed this view and conclusion . But there are still many “ barbarian ” Less than the heart of the Yellow River die , The next contestants also came one after another , Want to touch the car maker “ luck ”, Whether it's Xiaomi of technology enterprises 、OPPO、 Huawei , Or Skyworth and Midea in the field of home appliances , Or Baidu of Internet enterprises 、 Ali et al , They walked on the bodies of countless martyrs .


Isn't the lesson enough ? no , In the eyes of latecomers , The more pits the martyrs stepped on , The greater the chance of avoiding the pit , The greater the chance of success . A noteworthy number is , First half of this year , The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 10%, Some mega cities, such as Shanghai , The penetration rate in some months is close to 40%.


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And as Tesla industry chain matures, the price will drop ,“ Wei Xiaoli ” And the second tier new forces have gradually gained a firm foothold and sold 10000 vehicles last month , And the layout of traditional car companies in the transformation of new energy , It seems easier to build intelligent electric vehicles than it was two or three years ago .


Especially the three major batteries of electric vehicles 、 The motor 、 Electronic control , The industry has gradually matured , It provides support for the core components of electric vehicles . Including the hottest intelligent cockpit at present , The supply chain system in each field is maturing , It also means that as long as you have money 、 Have an idea 、 A user , It's not difficult to build a car .


Especially the domestic power battery industry , It has developed into a leader in the global automotive field , Energy density 、 The security and other aspects have been greatly improved , More importantly, with the surge in volume , The cost advantage of scale is becoming more and more prominent .


Of course , Including solid-state batteries 、 The emergence of new categories such as sodium ion batteries , And the Ningde era 、 BYD 、 Hive energy 、 GuoXuan high tech 、 Funeng technology and other power battery enterprises , It provides more competition and choice for automobile power battery , For example, Tesla can also use BYD's blade battery .


The advantages and maturity of the supply chain are only hardware conditions , There are many thresholds to cross on the road of building a car , Money 、 technology 、 Factory base 、 personnel 、 sales , Every field is a threshold , The new forces are eager to try , Can't cross , Do it again .


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On capital , Will the current capital heavily overweight the Internet economy ? Look at Ali 、 Meituan and other large factories , education 、 The experience of games and other fields is clear , The state cannot allow these enterprises to grow endlessly . Corresponding , The State supports industry , The direction of the car is absolutely right .


On Technology , China is the largest auto market , It is bound to produce more new technologies close to the needs of consumers , Needless to say, the traditional three major parts of the car , In intelligence 、 New technologies in the field of automatic driving , There is no doubt that China is the best growth greenhouse .


On the factory base , China is the most indispensable , Originally, China's auto production capacity was surplus , Merger and reorganization can be realized , Coupled with the strong demand of local governments for industrial upgrading , I'm eager for the auto industry to enter the local , Ask for money , Try your best , Just like Xiaomi , wuhan 、 Hefei 、 Xi'an and other places are robbing Xiaomi to land .


What's more, it's worth mentioning , The Chinese market has gathered the most powerful manufacturing capacity , Many of the world's few sophisticated equipment , All in Chinese factories .


On talent , At present, many traditional car companies are declining , As long as there is demand for new cars , The salary is in place , Finding people is not a problem . Moreover, many cross-border talents have entered the hot automobile industry , Especially in marketing and sales positions , Scene 、 Experiential has become a new trend , This aspect is also more consistent with intelligent technology products .


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Cars can be made , Whether you can sell is also the most critical link , In the current of new consumption trend , ecology 、 User base disk 、 Entrance and other factors become the key elements of sales , Huawei sells Thales SF5 Is a classic case , Cyrus provides cars , Huawei provides channels and users , Including mobile phone and home appliance enterprises , Also bring your own user portal , I think there is a good chance of success .


It's not hard to find out , This wave of rising new car manufacturers , Without exception, they have a huge user base , Huge demographic dividends and opportunities 、Z New consumption trends for generations , Driving all new car manufacturers to move forward desperately .


Behind the new face of the car making protagonist , Is that the competitive point of the automobile industry is shifting . Product definition 、 User operation and intelligent related technologies may be the key to winning the next competition . These are the advantages of technology companies .


If smart phones and mobile Internet are the dividends of the previous era , Then intelligent electric vehicles and intelligent travel will be new opportunities in the next era , The most advanced productivity 、 resources 、 Talents will be concentrated in this field .


And behind the car , Yes, the car has become an intelligent terminal and an entrance on the ecological chain , At the same time, the software defines the trend of cars , Let the automobile industry become an industry + Comprehensive industry of science and technology , This is not only in line with China's industrial conditions , Can bring more enterprise valuation , It can also build a strong brand image , Look at the world 500 strong , The top few are technology companies , The reason is self-evident .


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The core is not the user / product , It's money !


The industry has been discussing , For new cars , What is the core ? Some people say it's a product , After all, any industry and consumption , Products are fundamental , Without good product power, there will be no users . Others say it's a user , If there are no users , User requirements not found , Then the product can't be sold , Can not form industrial value . In short , Products and users are the relationship between chicken and egg , Chicken lays eggs , Or the problem of hatching eggs ?


But the first step for new car manufacturers is not to consider chicken and eggs , Because whether it's chicken or egg , Before incubation and production , The necessary condition is a chicken nest suitable for production and hatching 、 Air and water , This is the foundation. . let me put it another way , For an enterprise that has not started or just started to build a car , The core is not users , It's not a product , The foundation is money .


Behind the product is technology , Behind the technology is R & D , Behind R & D is talent and money , High quality talents also need money to pile up . Not to mention users , From Wei came many new forces , Do user operation and user touch , Including supermarket exhibition hall, etc , Both require a lot of capital .


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money , It has become the core of the second wave of car making .


Automobile manufacturing is a heavy asset 、 Heavy technology industry , In the future, it is still an industry that focuses on users , It all boils down to money . Li Bin, founder of Weilai automobile, once said frankly :“ I know how to make cars and burn money , I didn't expect to burn so much money ,‘ Ten billion ’ Often it's just enough to cross the threshold of the car building door .” Finally, on the verge of death , Hefei saved Wei Lai with money .


More and more money is needed to build cars , This also has something to do with the current competitive environment , More and more players , The configuration and product power of cars are getting higher and higher , The price of raw materials is rising , But the price of cars is falling , Profits are constantly diluted , There's more money to spend on users .


Where the money comes from is a serious problem , How to attract more funds and resources , How to raise the stock price and market value , It's a skill , therefore “ How bold people are 、 How much land is produced ”、“ The great leap forward ” The way of thinking , It also gradually appears in the strategic planning of various automobile enterprises .


Like the Great Wall Project 2025 Realize annual sales in 400 Thousands of cars , It's important to point out that , Great Wall motor 2020 The annual cumulative sales volume is 111.1 Thousands of cars , Want to finish 2025 Annual sales target , It means five years of growth 260%, The compound annual growth rate should be at least as high as 29%. Including Geely , This year's insurance is 153 Ten thousand is quite difficult , But it has been established 2025 year 365 Ten thousand flag.


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Another example is zero run , Last month, it released its medium - and long-term strategic sales targets , Plan to 2025 Realize annual sales in 80 Thousands of cars , And in the first half of this year , Zero sales are 1.5 Thousands of cars . Earlier , The ideal car also puts forward a more ambitious goal than zero running , That's it 2025 Reached in 160 Sales target of 10000 vehicles , Before this year 7 Months , Ideal cars deliver new cars less than 4 Thousands of cars .


Another example is Evergrande automobile , At present, there is no mass production model , But shouted out at the beginning of this year 2025 Production and sales 100 Ten thousand vehicles ,2035 reach 500 The target of 10,000 vehicles , It's ironic to sell assets not long ago , Brokeback survival , It also includes the automotive business .


launch a satellite , It has almost become the consensus of many auto enterprises since this year , Even if it doesn't happen in the end, there's a reason , Only blame the market for its failure 、 Strange epidemic 、 Blame consumers for being biased against electric cars , It's not the pot of the enterprise anyway . It's like Wilma is 2018 In, he threatened to be in 2019 In the delivery 10 Ten thousand cars , Face slapping is basically a high probability event , What's the reason ? Are the leaders of these auto enterprises not in awe of the market ? Will be optimistic that the future market prospect will be so good ?


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Not really , The grand goal of the enterprise is not for the industry and consumers , But let capital 、 Let shareholders and investors see , I'm going to do this , To achieve this goal , You have to have money and land , This is a kind of robbing resources 、 The best way to fund .


After all, the current auto market and industry have been closely linked to capital , financing 、 list 、 Market value management , Become a necessary lesson for all car companies , Just like Geely established krypton Technology , Put capital in products 、 Users are equally important .


It can be seen that , How important money is to car manufacturers .


Like the three new powers “ Wei Xiaoli ” Not only landed in US stocks , And continue to be listed on Hong Kong stocks ; Just like Geely's continuous operation of the group structure , Seeking to enter the capital market ; Like the beginning of this year , Many domestic auto companies want to enter the science and innovation board , All in “ Rob money and enclosure ”.


Because now the automotive industry , There are more people robbing money , Fewer people give money , Not to mention once “ Gold master ” With a lot of money , Whether it is traditional car companies or new car manufacturers, they naturally have to rush .


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Deadly costs and costs


“ survive ” It's not just what new car manufacturers are most worried about , Including Geely 、 The Great Wall is also growing or worrying about how enterprises can survive at the most beautiful moment .


Put the above mentioned “ money ” Extend the , How can car manufacturers survive ?“ The biggest competition comes down to cost .” Remember at a communication meeting , Former Geely Automobile Group CEO, Now krypton Technology CEO An Conghui said , Why did Geely and Volvo jointly develop the architecture ? The purpose is the low-cost advantage brought by the scale effect , Including the Geely handle CMA framework 、SEA The vast architecture is shared with other car companies , In this way, scale effect can be formed .


Let's see why Wuling Hongguang MINI EV、 tesla Model 3 Can sell so well , The reason behind this is that SAIC GM Wuling and Tesla can control costs , Make the cost performance of products to the extreme , The strong cost advantage promotes enterprises to make more profits when they gain market share .


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Especially in the present and future when the competitive environment is bad , Enterprises also act more frequently in terms of cost , If we say that the purpose of open source change is to obtain financial support on the road of development , Then the purpose of cost reduction is to use more cash flow to meet unknown challenges . BMW's future 5 Annual reduction 25% cost , Daimler , Volkswagen and other enterprises have also announced plans to cut expenditure , The merger of the business , It's time to lose weight , To achieve more reasonable operating costs .


The money was spent , The whole research and development - product - production - sales - R & D failed to get through , The closed loop of the road to making cars no longer exists , Making a car has become a bubble . actually , In the past few years, we have encountered difficulties due to the transformation of the road of building cars , Finally, there are many people who bring down the enterprise and its previous main business , Like lion Technology 、 Perfluoro 、 Jingwei Co., Ltd 、 Xinhaiyi and other companies in the automobile industry chain , Once threatened to enter the vehicle manufacturing industry , It has even begun to be implemented .


But from the current situation , None of these companies has been successful so far , On the contrary, it has brought a drag on the previous main business . Perfluoro 、 Jingwei shares gradually returned to the right track by clearing the vehicle business , But xinhaiyi 、 Lion technology is dragged down by the new energy business to varying degrees , So far, it has not been alleviated .


This is the price of making cars blindly , Once the car fails or doesn't find the right direction , Enterprises not only lose money and energy , More lost time .


Just as Wang Chuanfu commented on Xiaomi's car making ,“ For the big guys ,50 100 million is not money , The key is to waste three years of your time , How much is it worth in these three years ? You can't buy it with money , If the strategic direction of the enterprise is wrong , May be lost 50 A hundred million is not much , But you lost three years , This is very important .” Although Wang Chuanfu's evaluation may be from the position of one more competitor of BYD , But what Wang Chuanfu said is not unreasonable .


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Of course, the car failed , It may not be a big problem for enterprises or founders , After all, money is financed , The land is approved by the government , Some professional managers can change places , Continue as an executive . But a series of social impacts and costs , But it's hard to quantify .


The collapse of new car manufacturing enterprises is often accompanied by the arrears of wages of a group of employees , For example, Baoneng 、 Like sailin , There have been negative social phenomena such as employee rights protection before . At the same time, some local governments in order to attract investment , Give money and land , Build a bridge for the landing of new car building forces on the Mainland . But the thing to know is , Once the road of building a car is paved , The investment of funds and resources is like flood discharge .


last year 《 Car commune 》 When I went to Jiangxi for automobile industry research, I found , Many industrial parks mainly engaged in automobile industry are experiencing a decline in automobile consumption 、 When the new car can't get up, it is basically idle , There is a serious overcapacity , Cause a lot of waste of resources and social costs .


At the same time, more and more new car manufacturers join the track , There will be more bases and factories , according to an uncompleted statistic , At present, the production capacity of China's third shift has exceeded 6000 Thousands of cars , And if the expansion and target plans of all auto enterprises , The future of China's local auto production capacity 5~10 During the year , Or it will reach nearly 100 million , The question is, does China really need that productive sales ?


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Many production lines are shut down , But many people are anxious to continue to build factories , This is the strange situation of China's automobile industry . Crazy speculation , It will aggravate the mismatch and waste of market resources , There must be a huge behind the hot 、 A deadly crisis .


According to the consumption of China's automobile market , Passenger car 2500 Ten thousand cars can be said to have been quite good , Combined with road facilities 、 Urban congestion 、 Automobile consumption trend 、 The convenience of high-speed rail 、 And car sharing and leasing ,3000 The annual sales volume of 10000 vehicles is almost the peak of the Chinese market , That means , China doesn't need so much production and sales , We don't need so many new car manufacturers .


therefore , Future competition in the automotive market , Fuel and new energy , Destined to be a bloody fight , And the one who pays behind the scenes , It's the country and the people .


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Stuck neck problem to be solved


not long ago , Huawei released this year's flagship product P50 series , What makes everyone doubt is , HUAWEI as 5G Advocate of , This year's flagship aircraft did not 5G The function of , The reason behind this is that the United States is against Huawei 5G Chip constraints , Because the United States does not want to see the barriers built by science and technology be destroyed by Huawei 5G break . So under the constraints of the United States , Huawei has no choice , Can only be downgraded on the flagship 4G mobile phone , The neck is stuck .


China wants to become strong , We must get rid of dependence on the United States in some areas , For example, chips and operating systems in the field of mobile phones . When the automobile industry turns to a new stage of electrification and intelligence , Many people in the industry are worried about whether it will appear like the mobile phone industry in the future “ thetime ” The situation of .


Why do you say that? ? It's not difficult to understand. , Behind the intellectualization and electrification of cars , It's intelligence and technology , It mainly needs the support of hardware chip and software capability , The chip shortage since last year has brought a heavy blow to the automotive industry , Chip shortage 、 Rise in price 、 black market , There are many uncertain factors left for the future development of cars .


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With the smart cockpit 、 The evolution of autopilot and other directions , The car will become a pair of chips 、 Industries with stronger demand for computing power , Once China touches the interests of hegemonic countries such as the United States on the road of intelligent electric vehicles in the future , The probability of being restricted will be greater and greater , After all, the United States is the country with the largest voice in the chip industry .


Of course , It's not that we don't make smart electric vehicles because the chip is stuck , The implication is in the intelligent and electric industrial cluster , Should more chip companies break the restrictions of the United States , Research and development 、 Design and even make chips , Have complete autonomy , Do a good job in the upstream of intelligent electric vehicles , Form industrial chain advantages .


In fact, there is a huge market demand and opportunities in the future , Horizon 、 Semen sesami nigrum 、 Xinchi Technology 、 Huawei and others are laying out autopilot chips , Want to get rid of Intel 、 Ying Wei Da 、Mobileye The control of , Build an independent and controllable chip industry chain and break through the core technical barriers of chips , It has become one of the most important strategic efforts at the national level .


But for the chip manufacturing side , At present, China's voice is not high , This is also in the context of the interconnection of everything from mobile phones to cars to the future , Where Chinese market and enterprises need to break through .


And the future of electric vehicles , The key behind it is the power battery . At present, Ningde times has become the world's largest power battery supplier , There is BYD in China 、 GuoXuan high tech 、 Yiwei lithium energy 、 Xinwangda 、 Funeng technology 、 Honeycomb, etc , Including ternary lithium 、 Solid state batteries 、 Blade battery 、 Lithium iron phosphate battery, etc , The competitive field of power battery is also lively .


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However, the shortage of power batteries , It has also constantly aroused the concern of people in the industry . Not long ago , Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, also said at the shareholders' meeting , The customer recently urged him to “ I can't stand it ”. Under the dual carbon goal , All car companies are competing for the core parts of electric vehicles , He Xiaopeng of Xiaopeng 、 Li Bin from Weilai has also been personally urging the supply of power batteries recently .


In addition to the competition of car companies for batteries , And fixed energy storage 、5G Base station energy storage 、 Electric bicycle is ahead of lithium electrification 、 A large number of batteries need to be pre installed in the power change mode , All contribute to the shortage of power battery supply . Yang Hongxin, chairman of honeycomb energy, said in an interview :“ After missing the core , The main supply shortage facing the automotive industry will be batteries . Because capacity release takes time , Battery capacity will continue to be tight in the next few years .”


Bank of America also predicted in a recent report that ,2025/2030/2040 year , The global penetration rate of electric vehicles will be increased to 23%、40% and 67%. and , Bank of America also calculated according to the model , Power battery supply or at 2025~2026 year “ sell out ”, At that time, the capacity utilization rate of each battery plant will exceed 85%.2026~2030 Year ,“ Battery shortage ” May further aggravate .


Under strong demand , Power battery manufacturers have started another round of large-scale investment and production expansion . data display , First half of this year , The main investment projects in the power battery industry have reached 57 pen , The amount of investment exceeds 3500 One hundred million yuan . And chip 、 And new energy , Where is the shortage , Where capital is concentrated .


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If you take lithium batteries alone , Some people in the industry believe that , According to the rapid development of the industry , If the recovery of lithium is not considered , Based on the existing controlled reserves , Lithium resources can only meet 4 Production in , Even doubling the controlled reserves is not enough .


So recently, Ningde times also released sodium ion batteries , The purpose is to promote sodium ion battery as a supplement to lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery , But as for whether the sodium ion battery has the industrialization advantage of large-scale mass production , It's still unknown .


From the strategic direction of the national automobile industry , It must be the hope to switch from the fuel car track to the new energy track , Stand on the same starting line with global auto enterprises . The good news is that , Driven by huge market dividends and many new car manufacturers , The maturity and leadership of China's intelligent electric vehicle market have been ahead .


However, in the player 、 capital 、 resources 、 chip 、 Battery, etc , How many people can successfully seize the opportunity , The contradiction between crazy expansion and rational market demand , What will be the situation of the automobile industry in the future .


The banquet guests , The watchtower collapsed , Sometimes the Republic , Sometimes Utopia , Times are fast , unimaginable .


This article is excerpted from 《 Car commune 》 The magazine 7、8 Monthly cover story .


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Du Yuxin

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