Analysis of metal demand increment driven by Tesla 4680 battery

snowball 2022-03-04 15:38:57 阅读数:477

analysis metal demand increment driven

source : Snowball App, author : Guo Weisong _ Xinxin investment ,(https://xueqiu.com/2524803655/213009057)

tesla 4680 The largest demand driven by batteries is nickel 、 silicon 、 lithium , The second is manganese .

One 、

4680 Battery innovation highlights

1.1 The electrodeless ear solves the problem of heat dissipation , Help the breakthrough of larger volume

4680 The battery is named after its size , It's a diameter 46 mm 、 high 80 Mm cylindrical battery , yes 21700 Battery volume 5.48 times . Larger volume will increase the energy of the battery 5 times , And can achieve mass production of a large number of battery packs , Save materials and costs , Promote the reduction of battery production cost 14%. However, large volume brings uncontrollable heat , Increased risks of combustion and explosion .

The innovative design of Wuji ear solves this problem . Usually, the pole lug in the battery structure is a metal conductor that leads the positive and negative poles out of the cell . In the case of pole ears ,4680 The size of the battery is too large , The current path is too long , Will increase resistance and heat dissipation . and 4680 The battery removes a single pole lug , One end of the electrode is directly connected with the outside of the battery through the coated conductive material , The pattern of forming the full polar ear .50 The circuit length of MM replaces the previous one 250 Mm length , Reduced resistance , Greatly improve the heat dissipation of the battery 、 Reduce heat generation .

According to the tesla Battery Day Disclosure , The new limitless ear and size increase the battery life 16%、 Power output is increased 6 times 、 Energy enhancement 5 times .

1.2 Dry electrode process , Simplified steps , Cost reduction

The usual wet electrode process puts the material powder into the solvent , Dry 、 Compressed into a film .4680 In the electrode design of battery , The dry process replaces the wet process , The steps of solvent are omitted , Press the powder directly into a film , Remove the dry 、 Cumbersome steps such as solvent recovery .

When the scale of dry electrode process is expanded , according to tesla 2021 The latest battery day PPT The original text shows , The floor area of production is reduced 90%、 Reduced energy consumption 90%、 The input cost is greatly reduced .

Two 、

4680 The core material of the battery

2.1    Anode material : Silicon replaces graphite , Range increased 20%

4680 The battery will use silicon-based negative electrode material . Compared with the typical cathode material of lithium battery, graphite , The intercalation of silicon into lithium is graphite 9 times 、 More abundant on earth . The difficulty with silicon is , When it's filled with lithium , The volume will expand 4 times , The extrusion of particles will lead to the insulation of the material , Loss of battery capacity .

According to the tesla Battery Day Disclosure , In order to solve this difficulty ,4680 The battery will return to the original metallurgical silicon . The cost of the negative electrode is reduced to 1.2 dollar / KWH , Compared with the use of graphite, the cost is reduced 88%. meanwhile , Silicon will increase the battery 20% Range of .

tesla Special silicon ” At present, there are more similar concepts , current 4680 The battery will be made of silicon carbon anode material . According to the Shi dashenghua The latest development of silicon carbon negative electrode , Silicon carbon negative electrode (SiOx-C) The mixing amount of is expected to be from 10% Upgrade to 15%.1GWh Of 4680 The battery consumption is about 750 Tons of silicon carbon cathode material .

2.2    Cathode material : High nickel and cobalt removal , Positive high nickel cathode material

4680 The positive pole of the battery will make maximum use of nickel . The cost of positive electrode is reduced per kilowatt hour 15%.

Depending on the model , The proportion of cathode materials is divided into three categories . Iron is used for medium endurance products that do not require high energy density .2/3 Nickel and 1/3 Manganese is used for medium and long endurance products . High nickel is used for long endurance products , for example Cybertruck, Semi Wait for a big car .

tesla The cathode material collocation disclosed at present is very conceptual , The specific dosage and system cannot be determined . According to the Haitong International Of “ Treasure map of metal industry ”, According to the present NCM811 Ternary high nickel system ,1GWh Of 4680 The battery consumption is about 3086 Tons of nickel sulfate 、413 Tons of cobalt sulfate 、248 Tons of manganese sulfate 、619 Tons of lithium LCE.

2.3 Diaphragm and electrolyte :PVDF、LiFSI The dosage increased

4680 Both the positive and negative poles of the battery will be coated on the diaphragm PVDF( Polyvinylidene fluoride resin ). According to the unicorn think tank “ tesla 4680 Summary of the telephone conference on the analysis of the current situation of batteries and the beneficial industrial chain ”,4680 Battery PVDF The dosage is determined by 2% Upgrade to 8%. According to the national energy information platform , contain 2% PVDF Three element battery 1GWh Of PVDF The dosage is about 20 Tons of . So let's calculate 8%PVDF Of 4680 The battery 1GWh Of PVDF The dosage will be increased to about 80 Tons of .

Let's assume that in the electrolyte ,LiFSI( Bifluorosulfimide lithium salt ) The proportion of additives will be increased to 5%. Every time GWh The electrolyte consumption of ternary battery is about 700-900 Tons of . take 800 Tons of electrolyte 5%,4680 Battery every GWh Of LiFSI The dosage will be about 40 Tons of .

2.4   4680 Consumption of some battery materials

According to the above analysis and calculation , Sum up 4680 Part of the material consumption of the battery .

3、 ... and 、

2022-2030 Annual carrying capacity 4680 The carrying capacity of the battery model

3.1 carrying 4680 The production of battery models will increase significantly

tesla Will pick up 4680 Battery models include large vehicles Cybertruck,Semi as well as ModelY.

First load 4680 Battery models Model Y Due in 2022 Production began in the first quarter of 2013 . according to 2021 In about 90 Ten thousand Model 3/Y Production projections , Let's assume that 2022 Annual production 100 Thousands of cars Model Y.

Cybertruck Will be in 2023 Mass production started in , expect 2023 The output of is 25-30 Thousands of cars .Semi Will be in 2023 Mass production started in . According to musk , production 4 After year ,Semi The output of is expected to reach one year 10 Thousands of cars .

We are right. tesla Estimation of production of different models , hypothesis CAGR50% The growth of , expect 2022-2030 The output of three models in . Increased production 、 New models join , 4680 The demand for batteries is very strong .

3.2 carrying 4680 The total electric energy required by the battery model

According to the Electric Vehicle Database, A car Model Y The battery capacity of is 75kWh, A car Cybertruck The battery capacity of is 250kWh, A car Semi The battery capacity of is 500kWh. According to the battery capacity and output of each model , We can get 2022-2030 Annual carrying capacity 4680 The total energy required by the battery model .

2022 year 4680 The demand for battery production is about 75GWh,2030 year 4680 The demand for battery production is about 3160GWh(3.16TWh), a 2022 The annual growth is about 4113%. The above estimate is also in line with Musk's release on battery day 4680 The plan mentioned in the battery concept :“4680 The output of batteries is 2022 Year to year 100GWh、 stay 2030 Year to year 3TWh.”

Four 、

2022-2030 year 4680 The demand of batteries for metal materials

4.1 lithium 、 silicon 、 Demand for nickel is growing strongly

According to /GWh The amount of material used , Consideration tesla Under the system 4680 Battery driven demand for metal materials . Lithium is used as the core material of the battery , Silicon is the main material of negative electrode 、 Nickel as the main material of cathode , The most significant increase in demand .

4680 The demand for lithium batteries will inevitably drive the mass production of lithium batteries . We expect 2022 year tesla 4680 The demand for lithium in batteries is about 4.6 Ten thousand tons of (LCE),2030 The demand in is expected to reach one year 195.6 Ten thousand tons of (LCE).

Replace the graphite of the negative electrode with silicon ,4680 The battery will inject new demand for silicon . We expect 2022 The demand for silicon carbon cathode materials is about 5.6 Ten thousand tons of , 2030 Our demand is about 237 Ten thousand tons of .

4680 Batteries also drive nickel demand growth . We expect 2022 The annual demand for nickel sulfate is about 23.1 Ten thousand tons of ,2030 The annual demand is about 975.2 Ten thousand tons of .

This article takes NCM811 The amount of cathode material in the system is analyzed , The proportion of nickel in cathode material is 80%. tesla Want to increase the nickel proportion of cathode material to the highest , In the future, we may take NCM91、NCMA Equal ultra-high nickel system , The proportion of nickel may be higher than 80%.

4.2 The demand for manganese is huge

tesla 4680 The largest demand driven by batteries is nickel 、 silicon 、 lithium , The second is manganese .

2022 year tesla The demand for manganese sulfate is about 1.9 Ten thousand tons of ,2030 The demand of the year reached 78.4 Ten thousand tons of .

This report is based on NCM811 The amount of cathode material in the system is analyzed , The proportion of manganese in the cathode material is 10%.

4.3 PVDF 、LiFSI Don't neglect : New demand is pouring in

PVDF and LiFSI Although the proportion of the increase in dosage is small , But it should not be underestimated . to 2030 year , tesla 4680 The battery needs about... A year 12.6 Ten thousand tons of LiFSI As an electrolyte additive , about 25.3 Ten thousand tons of PVDF As a diaphragm adhesive .

5、 ... and 、

Uncertainty analysis

There is uncertainty about the output of cars . This paper is based on the current tesla Analyze the disclosed production plan . and Cybertruck,Semi because 4680 The shortage of batteries has changed the time to market from 2021 The year was postponed to 2023 year .2022 Whether Tesla can open 4680 Mass production of batteries 、 Whether production will be delayed Cybertruck And other models are uncertain factors .

In this paper, the source “ Stick to core assets ”

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