Why is it so late to get out of "ningwang" when hundreds of billions of power batteries are recycled?

Talking about AI 2022-06-23 19:30:10 阅读数:218

lateningwanghundredsbillionspower

 picture source @ Vision China

picture source @ Vision China

writing | Tan Qing said AI 

6 month 15 Japan , Huanglibin, director of the Department of energy conservation and comprehensive utilization of the Ministry of industry and information technology, led a team to China iron tower company to carry out special research .

Huanglibin's requirements , We should systematically summarize the pilot experience of recycling retired power batteries , Stick to problem orientation , Work with relevant departments , Accelerate research and development 《 Administrative measures for recycling of power batteries of new energy vehicles 》 And the standards urgently needed by the industry , We will strengthen the research, promotion and application of key technologies such as efficient regeneration and utilization of power batteries , Continuously improve the recycling system , Improve the recycling level of power batteries .

In fact, the topic of power battery recycling , It's not so new , With the booming sales of new energy vehicles , In recent years , There are voices about the trend of power battery retirement .

Call for power battery recycling , The most intuitive driving force for the public is environmental protection , In the face of national carbon neutrality 、 The goal of carbon peak , When the wave of power battery retirement sweeps in the future , How to deal with these huge potential environmental hazards , Undoubtedly worthy of attention .

But the commercial value , It is often the most effective measure to urge action .

“ The service life of the power battery is usually 5-8 year , Even if it is eliminated from the automobile , Nor does it mean that its value has been exhausted .” An insider told Tan Qing AI Express ,“ After the battery is retired from the vehicle , Usually there will be 70%-80% The capacity of exists , Even if eventually there is no ability to reuse , Lithium in the battery 、 Cobalt and other metal elements are also of great value .”

In the face of all these , The power battery recycling industry is ready to go , Where have you been today ?

01 Look at the prospect of mountain horse racing , And the need to build canals for water

The power battery explosion is based on the rise of the electric vehicle market , However, the original intention of the rise of the electric vehicle market is not to bring differentiated driving experience to mankind , Instead, it is committed to solving the more important issue of replacing non renewable energy with renewable energy .

In a way , The basis for the realization of automobile electrification is the non renewable resource of mineral resources , The total amount of ore on the earth is limited , This means that if you don't want to put the cart before the horse , The electric vehicle must realize the recycling of a large number of power battery mineral resources .

But the big picture , It is often the existence of a dead horse who looks at the mountain .

In the past two years, it has been said that the first year of power battery recycling has come , And put forward that at present, we need to make preparations to catch waves of power battery retirement , But to this day , It's not hard to find out , Talking about the first year based on the prospect , The first year is often a story of a wolf .

This year, , Even next year , Will it be the first year of our real power battery recycling ? Maybe no one can guarantee , But compared with the empty talk about the future of the industry , After today's more explicit recycling demand , It seems that we are indeed closer to the first year .

Tan Qing said AI Think , Today, there is a real demand for power battery recycling , It is reflected in two aspects , First, the risk of instability in the power battery supply chain began to appear , Second, facing the foreseeable tide of retirement , Urgent remediation needs at the social and national levels .

The first is in the supply chain , For many years, the scale demand for power battery recycling was actually small , For enterprises , Based on the prospect, the corresponding strategic layout can be made in advance , Be a tide watcher early , After all, in the face of today's still fuzzy input-output ratio , The actual economic benefits over a long period of time are in doubt .

But the price rise of electric vehicles during this period , Undoubtedly, many people see the valuable value that power battery recycling can provide for the stability of the supply chain .

since 2021 Since the second half of , Power batteries such as lithium 、 cobalt 、 The prices of nickel and other major raw materials are soaring , The price of lithium salt rises ten times a year ,“ Demon nickel ” When new words begin to appear , New energy manufacturers shed tears .

In the face of such a source , There is a risk of falling back , Battery recycling is an invisible prospect , It became an immediate idea .

Just imagine , If new energy vehicles are popularized in the future , The cost crisis of raw materials in the supply chain has occurred again , So a wave of retired power batteries , Naturally, it can solve the urgent problem very well .

From the national and social level , At present, the governance demand of the power battery recycling industry has also begun to appear .

Before electric cars , Limited by the scale of lithium battery recycling, the demand is small , The actual economic benefit is not high , There are not many regular military enterprises in the industry , Small players can digest by themselves , The industry can also be regarded as a time of tranquility .

But future , The decommissioned power battery is undoubtedly a wave of huge waves , Small players can rush to the sea , But in the face of huge waves coming, can you digest it ? The recycling process , And whether it can support the environmental protection issues that are expected to grow exponentially ?

This is undoubtedly from the perspective of national policy , Urgent questions to answer .

02 Hundreds of billions of beautiful “ Cleansing Oil ”

Demand has arrived , The newborn .

according to TrendForce Jibang consulting research shows that , With the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry , The decommissioning amount of power batteries is increasing year by year ,2020 The market scale has reached 24 RMB .

For future market prospects , Its estimate 2025 The scale of waste battery utilization in China will reach 260 RMB . In the near future , There are also institutional forecasts ,2030 The scale of battery material recycling market will exceed 1000 One hundred million yuan .

Hundreds of billions are beautiful , But today , The battery recycling business is on its way , Still covered with thorns .

before , Tan Qing said AI Liangzhesheng, an insider in the power battery industry ( alias ) There has been a discussion about power battery recycling .

Liangzhesheng said to us , At present, there are two main modes of power battery recycling , There are not only more intuitive Disassembly and recycling , There is also a very important pattern , Echelon utilization .

The recycling mode of echelon utilization is also well understood , It's like when the batteries of electric toys at home were eliminated in childhood , You can also give the remote control another period of time , In fact, it is an instinctive behavior of people , In essence, it is to extend the service life of the battery by transferring the demand .

Generally speaking , When the capacity of the power battery decays to the rated capacity 80%-70% Following time , It is no longer applicable to electric vehicles . but 80%-20% This interval , This is where the blue ocean of echelon utilization of power batteries lies , It can still meet the energy storage or power requirements in many scenarios , Only if the capacity drops to 20% And then it must be scrapped .

Therefore , Although the power battery 5-8 It will be eliminated in , But in some energy storage projects that do not have such high comprehensive requirements for batteries , For example, related power supply base stations and street lamps 、 Low speed electric car , The power battery can still exert waste heat in some scenes , Until the value of energy storage no longer exists , Finally, enter the disassembly and recycling system .

However , Echelon utilization of power battery , It is far from as simple as pulling out the toy battery, installing it in the remote control and reusing it .

The power batteries retired from electric vehicles are not unified due to the actual situation , Ternary lithium or lithium iron phosphate ? Or like today's blade batteries , Cellular battery , The concrete structure is different , Performance is often required 、 Safety and many other elements are evaluated and tested , Thus, the decommissioned power battery is disassembled and reassembled according to different uses , Give full play to the waste heat in the new demand scenario .

The biggest difficulty of the whole echelon utilization is Disassembly and reorganization This step .

In terms of cost , According to the data of the national energy information platform , Assume that the purchase cost of decommissioned power batteries is 20 dollar /kWh And the availability is 60%, Then the cost of battery recycling, disassembly and reassembly is 71.7 dollar /kWh.

After the power battery retired, it experienced a series of Nirvana and rebirth , It costs more than new batteries , It is not so easy to find a large number of “ Injustice ” Check ?

Turn around , If the cost is reduced in the process of disassembly and reorganization , Security will not be guaranteed , For a long time , Echelon utilization is embarrassing here .

What about the seemingly simple and crude disassembly and recycling ?

“( Disassembly and recycling ) At present, there are two main process routes , Dry and wet methods , The former has metallurgical pyrolysis , The latter uses acid-base or organic solvent, etc , Of course, there are many innovations , Such as low temperature freezing 、 Biotechnology, etc , But generally not very mature .” Liangzhesheng said to us at that time .

The specific process technology will not be repeated here , At present, the embarrassment of disassembly and recycling mainly lies in the fact that dry recycling is simple , But it consumes a lot of energy 、 The problem of low metal recovery is prominent ; Wet recycling will produce a large amount of wastewater , Environmental protection is also poor . Overall speaking , There is still no optimal solution , Waiting for the results of the laboratory .

On the whole , Tan Qing said AI Think , On the recycling of power batteries , Although promising , But it has been limited by the small market , The early research and development efforts are limited , Therefore, relevant technical reserves are still scarce , And the concentrated expression of the problem , Besides technology , Integration is also an inextricable focus .

Battery recycling is a B End business , Starting from the decommissioned batteries , The most upstream of the whole chain can be traced back to consumers , It is a big and scattered opening , In addition, there are complex and diverse battery specifications and models as well as differences in raw materials , This has made the track a profit chasing field for small workshops for many years .

But despite the thorns , But for capital , Bright prospects are often the strongest thread in business stories , For example, an automatic driving track , It is also a distant story , But there are many star players in the track today .

In contrast, the power battery recycling industry , Why are there few new star enterprises rising today ? This is also a question worth thinking about .

03 New technologies for recycling batteries in China “ Ning wang ” Why dystocia ?

In fact, on the track of battery recycling , Across the world , Today is not a wilderness .

2017 year , As a CTO A position lasting for 16 Tesla co-founder in JB Straubel founded Redwood Materials, Dedicated to the recovery and reproduction of power batteries .

last year ,Redwood Materials It's done 7.75 $ C Round of funding , Goldman sachs 、 ford 、 Amazon and others have entered the game , The investment lineup is luxurious , As of last September , The company is valued at 38 Billion dollars , Is a well deserved unicorn .

that Redwood What is the charm of ? One data that looks very bright is ,Redwood Claim to be able to realize the lithium ion battery 95% The above materials shall be recycled .

But about this , At present, China is not inferior in technology , According to the data of China Research Network , At present, on the issue of battery recycling , The recoveries of cobalt and lithium carbonate have reached 95% and 85%, On the premise of conservative prediction , In the future, the recyclable proportion of batteries can be the same as Redwood To achieve the same 95%.

In recent conference calls , Ningde era Also said , Ningde era Battery recycling of subsidiary BOPP , The recovery rate of lithium has reached 91%, The recoveries of nickel and cobalt reached 99.6%.

Go back to the market , What is the real situation today ? As we mentioned earlier , Limited by the difficulty of integration , In recent years, power battery recycling has been a profit seeking field for small workshops , But how outrageous is this phenomenon ?

The Beijing news reported , Recycling of waste power batteries in recent years , Nearly eight years ago, Chengdu entered the black market , In addition, according to statistics , At present, the recovery rate of power batteries in China is only shocking 10% about , Obviously , This can not be separated from the wild technology of workshops “ contribution ”.

It's like weeds and good trees snatching nutrients , For the growth of the regular army, the industry is full of chaos , There is no doubt that there will be a very large negative containment .

From the source of recycling , At present, in our country , In the large and scattered consumer goods market , Recycling operations are often guerrilla warfare by small workshops , The recovery price is also relatively high , So as to attract the supply of goods , Obviously, this will not play a positive role in cultivating the overall recycling awareness of the people .

take the reverse into consideration Redwood, Thanks to the foundation of many years' Cultivation of people's recycling awareness , It is different from the large-scale subsidies in the pioneering period of new businesses in other industries , Its ToC The official website of the recycling business clearly states , Anyone can give their discarded lithium-ion battery products to Redwood To recycle , But there are two premises , One is Redwood I won't pay for these waste batteries , Second, the batteries sent must meet a series of requirements .

The current domestic market , On the other hand, the awareness of public recycling still needs to be cultivated , On the other side is the guerrilla random fist that small workshops recycle at a high price at the expense of technology , The regular army only supplies , The first battle is a hard bone .

On the other hand , New industries want to benefit the regular army , Legislate and gradually improve the benign binding force , Is the only way .

Today, many European and American countries have established relatively perfect battery recycling policy systems , Also benefit from these systems , People will have a stronger sense of responsibility for battery recycling as well as moral and legal binding force .

However, China's legislation on lithium battery recycling and the construction of relevant standard system , The results are still limited , This is one of the reasons why small workshops have been rampant in recent years .

But as the article begins , In the past two years, China has paid more attention to the issues related to power battery recycling , a certain extent , It can also be said that it has boosted the determination of many ace teams and regular troops to enter the game .

At the end of last year , Ningde era announce , Bangpu integrated new energy industry project was launched in 12 month 4 Official commencement , Recycle and reuse retired batteries to achieve cost reduction . meanwhile , Huayou cobalt Co., Ltd 、 Many lithium battery industry chain manufacturers such as Zhongwei Co., Ltd. also said that they would gradually increase the size of the power battery recycling business .

In addition to power battery manufacturers , Traditional third-party recycling enterprises , And the OEMs that have better access to the source of recycled goods , Today, the layout of the power battery circuit has also increased with the naked eye .

Check the inner eye APP Information display , Today, search for battery recycling keywords , Already exist 88244 Related results , Among them, only enterprises established within one year , As high as 40265 Related results , Accounting for almost half .

Although we can't predict the future trend linearly , But with the bright prospect beyond , Real demand rises , More and more large-scale regular soldiers take over the business of battery recycling , I believe there will be more and more players , Truly open up the electric vehicle war in the future , Environmental protection closed loop starting from the beginning .

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